The Four Factors:
• Field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
Oregon men’s basketball is headed into another offense-heavy showdown in Los Angeles against USC.
The Ducks (17-7, 7-4) and Trojans (9-14, 1-10) earn the most possessions per game in the Pac-12 and are ranked No. 20 and No. 23, respectively, in that statistic nationally. However, Oregon has the Pac-12’s top scoring offense at 77.2 points per game, while USC has the No. 10 scoring offense in the conference at 66.8 points per game.
After watching Oregon dismantle Washington State, a team similar to USC in multiple ways, it’s hard to expect anything but the road elements to keep Oregon from winning this game.

The Ducks have major advantages in expected field goal percentage and turnover rate, but only have a slight edge in rebounding percentage. The Trojans turn the ball over more than any Pac-12 team and have the conference’s lowest field goal percentage, but still have the ability to get out in transition and push the tempo.
With most of the team’s offense coming from their backcourt, Jordan McLaughlin (12.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.7 apg) and Julian Jacobs (7.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.3 apg) will be the focus for the Oregon defense. Perimeter shooter Katin Reinhardt (12.3 ppg) and forward Nikola Jovanovic (12.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg) are both capable scorers as well, but don’t match up very well against Oregon’s athletic lineup.

While defense looks like it will be a secondary factor in this game, Oregon and USC are relatively similar defensively. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the conference in scoring defense and defensive rebounding, but they each have their own strengths.
USC defends the perimeter very well, which pushed its expected field goal percentages down, and causes a fair amount of turnovers. Oregon has maintained a strong expected field goal percentage against throughout conference play.
A lot of the poor defensive numbers that USC has are a byproduct of its high possession rate and tempo, but the Trojans aren’t anywhere close to a defense-first team.
Expect Oregon’s offense to fly right through the USC defense, while Oregon’s defense will be the key factor in determining how close this game will be. The Ducks understand that the impact of a “bad loss” will end their tournament bid and should take care of business against the Trojans on Wednesday.
Follow Josh Schlichter @joshschlichter