Few teams get second chances in college football.
So you’d better believe USC is making the most of its opportunity.
With Oregon’s loss to Arizona last Thursday, the chase for the Pacific-10 Conference title became a three-horse race, two-loss Southern California included. Only three weeks ago, USC was counted out of the conference’s title race after losing to Oregon, giving it two conference losses. But before it can look ahead to the possibility of sneaking into its fifth straight Pac-10 title, it must first take care of business in the Arizona desert.
Waiting for the No. 11 Trojans (8-2 overall, 5-2 Pac-10) are the No. 6 Sun Devils (9-1, 6-1 Pac-10), who regained first place without even playing a down last Saturday. The Trojans also had a bye last week. The game will be broadcast at 5 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day on ESPN.
Unlike the Trojans, who must win out and hope for Oregon to lose again to get to the Rose Bowl, Arizona State controls its own postseason destiny. If the Sun Devils win against USC and against Arizona in the season finale, they will claim only the school’s third conference title in history. Oregon needs to win all its games and have Arizona State lose once in order to reach the Rose Bowl.
“You never know what’s going to happen. We just have to keep playing and approach it like a great championship opportunity,” said USC coach Pete Carroll to the Los Angeles Times this weekend.
Both schools are almost mirror images of each other statistically. ASU features the league’s second-best scoring offense (34.2 points per game) and defense (allowing 18 ppg), while USC’s offense averages only four points less per game while giving up 16 points each game on defense. The Trojans and Sun Devils rank first and second, respectively, in pass defense.
Despite both teams’ defensive prowess, watch out when the opposing offense reaches the red zone. The Trojans have allowed opponents to score almost 77 percent of the time, but Arizona State has allowed opponents to score an uncharacteristic 90 percent within the 20 yard line, good for worst in the league. Defending the red zone could be a key for the game’s outcome.
On the sidelines, the game will feature a matchup of top coaches as well. During his seven-year tenure at USC, Carroll has done the almost unthinkable by never losing a game in November (22-0) while winning 79 percent of games against top-25 teams. Arizona State’s first-year head coach Dennis Erickson, making his third head coaching stop in the conference, has a 1-4 lifetime record against the Trojans. They are one of few teams to cause Erickson trouble in his 19-year coaching career, during which he has compiled a .700 winning percentage.
Turnovers, however, could prove to be the turning point of the game. Arizona State enters the game leading the league in takeaways, with a +6 turnover margin, while USC is tied for eighth in the Pac-10 with a -4 margin. To that end, three Sun Devils – Troy Nolan, Robert James and Justin Tryon – rank in the top-10 in the Pac-10 for interceptions.
Arizona State has two standouts on special teams as well. Placekicker Thomas Weber has converted 19-of-20 field goals this season and Kyle Williams has been a consistent punt returner, leading the conference in yards per return (11.8). On offense, the Sun Devils can expect the full return of quarterback Rudy Carpenter from a thumb injury that he re-injured against UCLA on Nov. 10. Carpenter, who is ranked third in the league with 252 yards passing per game, threw on Sunday for the first time since the UCLA game.
USC has fewer questions regarding its quarterback, as John David Booty is expected to start for the second straight game. Booty was held out of practice for three days earlier in the week to rest his right middle finger. Booty will have the luxury of having three of the conference’s best running backs in his backfield. The leader of the pack, Chauncey Washington, ran for 220 yards against California and is the leader of the conference’s third-best rushing offense. The Trojans’ running backs also got another bit of good news early this week – All-American tackle Sam Baker could return after suffering a hamstring injury against Oregon. Linebacker Keith Rivers, who has battled injury problems all season, is questionable for the game.
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