The Oregon women’s basketball team has a chance to make the NCAA tournament. The path is clear: Win the Pacific-10 Conference Tournament in two weeks and secure the conference’s automatic bid.
Which is to say, the chance is very remote. Any road through the Pac-10 Tournament leads through Stanford, and the Cardinal — ranked No. 2 in the nation for much of the season — has beaten the Ducks by 20 points and 44 points this season. Not winning the tournament is not an option; RealTimeRPI.com has Oregon at No. 90, well outside the top 65 teams nationally.
The most likely postseason outcome is the Women’s National Invitational Tournament. Oregon last appeared in the tournament in 2007 and won the whole thing in 2002; the Ducks would certainly be a welcome draw with head coach Paul Westhead adding name recognition. Still, there are no guarantees with the Washington schools remaining. The Ducks could still find themselves on the outside looking in.
When Bev Smith was dismissed as head coach last season, the expectation handed down from the athletic department seemed concrete: postseason or bust. Last season’s team had high hopes that were quickly derailed due to injuries and inconsistency. Taylor Lilley, Rita Kollo and Nicole Canepa combined to miss 48 games (Canepa sat one out despite being available). Eight players started eight or more games, with only Micaela Cocks starting all 30 — after participating in the Beijing Olympics with the New Zealand national team that summer.
By season’s end, the 2008-09 Ducks were physically and mentally spent, their passion for the game overcome by fatigue. Oregon limped into the Pac-10 Tournament in March and subsequently become the first 7-seed to lose to a 10-seed in the tournament’s brief history. Its nine total wins were the fewest in school history.
Postseason appearance? At this point last season, it seemed impossible without a complete overhaul. Fast forward a year, and we’ve seen exactly that.
True, the personnel is mostly the same, but that’s the beauty of it. Westhead challenged the Ducks to completely revamp their approach to basketball in the belief that it would lead to success. The women bought into it instantly and their enthusiasm shows in their play.
Somewhere along the way, expectations caught up. Oregon has not succumbed to them but wants to live up to them. This has proven difficult.
Of the Ducks’ 12 losses on the season, just four of them had margins of defeat of five points or fewer. Oregon has lost to each ranked team it has played (Stanford twice and Georgia Tech) and is 1-7 against the top four teams in the Pac-10. A high-octane style equalizes play for only so long. Superior athletes and skill sets then take over.
The development of the program does not hinge on a postseason appearance but would certainly welcome it. Starters Amanda Johnson and Nia Jackson and key reserve Jasmin Holliday each have two years of eligibility remaining; playing time in late March will serve them well going forward. Lilley, Cocks and fellow senior Lindsey Saffold can end their careers on a high note. Perhaps most importantly, the Ducks are a dangerous first-time opponent for anyone (not named Connecticut) and are certainly capable of pulling off an upset victory by wearing a team down and hitting shots.
This year would be ideal for obtaining postseason experience, because next year will be a struggle. Lilley and Cocks have combined to take 39.1 percent of the Ducks’ field goals this season and 56.1 percent of the Ducks’ three-pointers. Their shooting will certainly be missed, as will their ability to create for teammates — the two have combined on 38.8 percent of the team’s assists this season.
Oregon has a more-than-legitimate chance to make the postseason for the first time in three years. It doesn’t need the NCAA Tournament to reap the benefits of playing in late March.
[email protected]