Over the summer, the trend of conference realignment really took shape. As Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA moved to the Big Ten, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah moved to the Big 12.
This left Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford without a home for some time. This was until Sept. 1 when the Atlantic Coast Conference voted to take in Cal and Stanford from the Pac-12, as well as Southern Methodist University from the American Athletic Conference.
From a financial perspective, the move made sense for both Stanford and Cal. The Pac-12 was not able to get a suitable media rights or revenue sharing contract finished in a timely manner to alleviate the stress that many of the members were feeling. The deal that was made would not have satisfied the majority of the teams that were previously members of the Pac-12 financially, so Stanford and Cal had no choice but to join the ACC.
The deal they made with the ACC would be for a reduced portion of the earnings of the media rights agreement for a set amount of years. It was this part of the deal that convinced some teams to flip their decision from not allowing Stanford, Cal and SMU into the conference to accepting them. In fact, SMU won’t gain any revenue from the media rights deal for up to nine years from now.
When looking at sports other than football, Stanford and Cal are some of the most successful college programs in the country. The Bay Area universities are two of the four most successful factories for Olympic athletes (the other two being USC and UCLA) and have some of the most expansive and wealthiest alumni networks in the world.
With regards to Oregon State and Washington State, those markets just didn’t seem valuable enough for the ACC, or any major conference, to tap into. They didn’t have any outstanding athletic teams, and on a nationwide scale, these aren’t schools that excel in any way at a high level. Not to mention, Corvallis, Ore, and Pullman, Wash, aren’t exactly the largest media markets. That’s not to say they don’t have successful sports teams, but they don’t offer any extra benefit to the conference, which is something that was a major reason the members voted to accept the schools they did.
Even now that the move has been decided on by the conference, there are still schools who are reportedly unhappy with the revenue sharing agreement that was made. Because of this, Washington State and Oregon State had no leverage on the ACC. They don’t provide any outstanding benefit and don’t exist in a major market like Cal, Stanford and SMU.
The road forward for OSU and Wazzu are unclear, but many different possibilities have been brought up.
The AAC had been in talks with the two schools, but it seems like that ship has sailed as the AAC does not intend to expand westward.
Another possibility would be a merger with the Mountain West, as it would make a lot of sense regionally but would drop these programs down a peg in regards to the major sports such as football and basketball.
They are currently in negotiations on how to make that happen, which would leave both parties very satisfied due to the Mountain West also losing some schools to conference realignment.
There is always the possibility that these schools go independent, but that would be the worst-case scenario. Oregon State and Washington State need a revenue sharing agreement to make enough money to keep their programs above water, and it would be very difficult to get that agreement done with their current standing. No major broadcasting company is willing to take that risk on two teams in desperate need for support.
Whatever the case may be, these schools currently have no plans to cut sports or even funding of their sports programs. Oregon State currently fields 17 NCAA teams, which is just one team over the minimum limit to become a Division I program. Washington State is in the same boat, also sponsoring 17 NCAA teams, so cutting the sport isn’t a possibility being considered in Pullman either.
Cutting sports would mean a pseudo-death penalty for these programs because they wouldn’t have the glamor of a traditional Division I team and would struggle to attract top recruits and coaches, so they would never get back to the level they were at.
No matter what happens, both Oregon State and Washington State are the clear losers of conference realignment. Becoming a “power five” football school is a prestige that many universities can only dream of accomplishing, but having that stripped away because of factors outside of sport is the nightmare all schools dread.