Opinion: The actions of Russia’s unjust invasion of Ukraine marks the end of Serbia’s blind loyalty to Putin’s government after decades of regional and cultural instability. But will it be enough to completely tame generational disputes?
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On Dec. 10, 2022, ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo erected roadblocks deterring entry into Serbia on its major border crossings. This dispute is one of many that has been ongoing since Kosovo’s fight for independence from Serbia in the late 1990s and its official independence in 2008. The international community became directly involved when Serbia announced on Dec. 26, 2022, that it had placed security troops on its border with Kosovo with “full military readiness.”
This roadblock and military buildup has since been removed and revoked due to international outcry from the West and the European Union. Today, Serbia continues to reject the idea that Kosovo is an independent nation and believes it is part of their territory. Who else supports them in this ethnic and cultural dispute?
Russia has historically been one of Serbia’s top international supporters as they continue to delegitimize the Kosovar people. The Russian government has been directly involved in the Balkan region throughout the 1990s and even attempted to have the United Nations stand up in Serbia’s defense after NATO’s bombing of Serbian military personnel in 1999. Since Kosovo’s official independence in 2008, Russian media has perpetuated the harmful rhetoric that Kosovo is Serbia.
The only reason Russia wants Serbia’s support is because Moscow and the West are in active competition with each other to earn international influence over this very sensitive region in Europe. According to a paper from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, many Balkan states are internally divided between liberal elements that look to Europe and conservative elements that are more receptive to Russia.
Unfortunately for Russia, this balancing act of global influence in the Balkans is in no way a sustainable way to continue. Fortunately for the West, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ruined any chance for a Russian victory in this contagious Balkan fever.
For most of current Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic’s time as the nation’s strongman leader, he has been referred to as “little Putin.” This name has stuck due to Serbia’s dependence on Russian energy imports and political partnerships. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ultimately marked the end of this once strong relationship of blind Russian loyalty. Putin’s own words would become a symbolic stab in the back to the Serbian people in April 2022. Putin cited the Kosovo situation when justifying his annexation of Eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. For the Serbs, Putin’s statements were seen as hypocritical as Russian propagandists have for years emphasized Kosovo’s illegitimate statehood.
Since this statement, Vucic and his conservative government have been distancing themselves from Russia. Interestingly, even after everything Russia has said, Serbia still has not placed any sanctions on Russia. It is obvious that this is due to them still being completely dependent on their energy. However, times change and actions have consequences.
One of the consequences for Russia’s unjust invasion of Ukraine is the growing possibility of Serbia’s decision to look to the West and its neighboring countries for alternative energy sources and international support. Vucic has stated that Putin’s actions in Ukraine have created unsustainable pressure from the West to eventually recognize Kosovo. It is important to note that Serbia had actually applied for EU membership in 2009 with negotiations still ongoing.
Today, Serbia still has no desire to recognize Kosovo as an independent nation, as the Serbian government believes it to be their rightful land; however, they are increasingly under the pressure of the West to change as they are no longer chained to Russia’s political influence. Will Serbia finally become a EU member or will they continue to be hindered by blind Russian loyalty?
Only time will tell.
