It seems not too long ago that people were dreaming of an Adam Maier-Jackson Cox-Isaac Ayon Oregon rotation.
Of course, that was never realistically going to happen. Cox was scooped up by the Rockies in the second round of the draft, and the Braves offered Maier a signing bonus he couldn’t say no to. That left Ayon, who got hurt during the fall and will have to miss most of the season.
Alas, precisely zero members of that dream rotation will have significant roles on the Ducks this year.
Starting pitching was a weak spot for Oregon in 2022, and it doesn’t look a whole lot better this time around. This rotation should be simultaneously exciting and frightening to watch, as the Ducks will be trotting out some talented arms who have very little experience starting games, let alone doing so at a high level.
Head coach Mark Wasikowski has not confirmed any of the rotation spots, but here’s a rundown of how it currently stands, as projected by D1Baseball.
Jace Stoffal
Stoffal is going to be one of this team’s most important wild cards. Throwing a pitcher into an unexpected Friday role is a lot to ask, especially for someone who doesn’t even have a full collegiate season under his belt.
Stoffal joined the rotation midway through the 2022 campaign. He struggled out of the gate, both in executing his stuff and going deep into games. However, he eventually showed signs of life, particularly in his last regular-season start against Arizona. He held a potent Wildcats offense to one run in seven innings, retiring 16 straight batters at one point.
“I think I made progress every weekend that I pitched,” Stoffal said. “And then the Arizona and that regional game were probably my best games, obviously towards the end of the year, just getting that experience and getting comfortable pitching at that level.”
He finished the year with a 5.59 ERA in eight starts. He also posted a 3.80 ERA in five games for the Springfield Drifters over the summer.
This offseason, Stoffal said he worked in the weight room nearly every day with weight trainer Darrell Hunter’s help, and was able to improve his fastball velocity from 88 to 94 miles per hour. That’s a drastic increase for a pitcher, especially in such a short time. Oregon’s analytics team has helped him develop his sinker and slider as well, he said.
Stoffal will also need to find a way to go deeper into games; he averaged less than four innings per start last year, which isn’t going to cut it, especially as a potential Friday starter. The increased velocity, experience last season and reps over the summer are all positive signs, so it’ll be interesting to see if Stoffal can take the necessary leap forward.
RJ Gordon
Gordon was somewhat of an enigma last year. He had several impressive performances out of the bullpen, which prompted Wasikowski to give him a chance in the rotation, where he promptly struggled. By season’s end, he settled in as a long reliever to back up Christian Ciuffetelli. Altogether, he posted a 5.64 ERA. While he’s yet to prove himself as a starter, he may need to finally step up and become a steady presence in Oregon’s rotation this year.
According to Aaron Fitt of D1Baseball, Gordon spent most of the fall training instead of pitching. Similar to Stoffal, his fastball should top out at around 94 mph and is complemented by a solid curveball and changeup. But Gordon struggles to overpower hitters and occasionally has control problems; last year, he recorded only 48 strikeouts compared to 34 walks in 68 2/3 innings. Finding consistency as a starter and limiting walks will be the keys for him this season.
Logan Mercado
Mercado was arguably Oregon’s best relief pitcher last year, as he put up a 2.61 ERA in 25 games. The problem is he has virtually no starting experience. He said he’s been working to build himself up this offseason by starting in intrasquad scrimmages and working on endurance.
“Last year, what worked for me was going really fast. My rhythm was really fast, and that messed up hitters a lot, but my velocity was down,” Mercado said. “It worked when I was a reliever, but this year, if it’s gonna work in the rotation, I have to figure out how to move better down the mound, use my legs a little more.”
He’s also developed his changeup to be a legitimate third pitch, which he only flashed a few times last year.
“I feel like I have three really, really good pitches where I can throw in any count,” Mercado said. “It’s always good to have as a starter so you can go deep into the lineup in the later innings.”
An extra pitch will certainly be a helpful tool to have as a starter, though we still haven’t seen how he’ll handle the extra workload. That’ll be the biggest key for him — can he maintain his run prevention skills over a larger body of work? He developed a reputation last year for “pitching angry” and exuding confidence on the mound, which should work in his favor.
“I’ve got a lot more confidence coming in. I wouldn’t say it’s cockiness, but I feel good about everything,” Mercado said. “I feel a little more seasoned than I was last year. Coming into last year, I really didn’t know what I was gonna do or what my role was gonna be.”
Matt Dallas/Freshmen
Perhaps the most curious inclusion on D1Baseball’s list is Dallas, a 23-year-old who was a staple in last year’s bullpen. He was one of the Ducks’ more reliable relievers, though he struggled down the stretch and finished the season with a 4.50 ERA. Like Mercado, the biggest question is whether he’ll be able to stretch his innings out and go deep into games.
Beyond these four options — all of whom were on the team last year — it’s important to pay attention to the freshmen as well. You never know quite what you’re going to get from an inexperienced 18-year-old, but a big reason why Oregon’s freshman class was ranked No. 14 by D1Baseball was because of the immensely talented Matthew Grabmann and Turner Spoljaric.
Perfect Game reported that Grabmann reached 95 mph back in 2021, and ranked him the No. 2 recruit out of Nova Scotia, Canada. D1Baseball reported that he hit 97 for the Canadian Junior National Team and topped out at 94 this fall. Among Oregon’s freshman class, he probably has the highest ceiling.
Spoljaric, whose father Paul pitched in MLB for the Blue Jays, ranks as the No. 6 recruit out of Ontario, Canada. He reached 93 mph this fall, per D1Baseball, and has a “strong frame and athletic delivery.”
Other freshman names to watch are Grayson Grinsell, Jackson Pace, Leo Uelmen and Ian Umlandt. Some of these pitchers will likely need to help out in the bullpen, which is a topic for another article.
The bottom line: Oregon has options, but it’s going to need someone to step up. For this team to be great, some of these pitchers will need to outperform their projections and build upon their previous performances. Otherwise, it’s hard to see the Ducks rising to the next level as a team.
