Oregon men’s basketball defied the odds over the final stretch of the regular season and wound up with the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. This granted the Ducks a valuable first round bye and–more importantly–put them as far away as possible from top-seeded Arizona.
The Ducks are a combined 6-1 against their half of the bracket, with their only loss coming at the hands of Robert Upshaw and Washington to start Pac-12 play.
Three of the teams on Oregon’s side of the bracket– Utah, Stanford and Oregon State – have lost to the Ducks within the past three weeks.
Stanford is also the only team desperate for a win, as the Cardinal are listed as a major bubble team in multiple projections.
Taking all those factors into consideration, Oregon’s path to the championship game is relatively favorable.

(Data via TeamRankings)
Advanced metrics still favor Utah’s efficiency over Oregon’s scoring, so TeamRankings gave Utah a 65 percent chance to advance past Oregon in their potential semifinal matchup.
On the other hand, Utah hasn’t been playing very well lately. The Utes have lost three of their last five games including a 77-68 loss to the woeful Washington Huskies in Seattle last Saturday night.
UCLA and Arizona State’s second round matchup could prove to be the most impactful game of the tournament, as the Bruins are listed as one of the “Last four out” in ESPN’s latest bracket projection.
The winner of that game will run into Arizona, which is the clear cut favorite to run away with the Pac-12 Championship. The Wildcats are virtually guaranteed to make the championship game and will have advantages over every team in the opposite half of the bracket.
The bad news for Oregon is that beating Arizona at this point in the season is virtually impossible. The Wildcats kicked it into overdrive to end the year and have beaten each of their last eight opponents by at least 10 points.
The good news is that the Ducks don’t need to beat Arizona to reach the NCAA tournament after their performance to end the month of February.
It’s no longer a matter of whether or not Oregon will be seeded in the NCAA tournament, it’s a matter of which seed it will receive.
If the Ducks are bumped from the conference tournament early, they’ll probably wind up in the historically difficult No. 8-No. 9 seed matchup in the NCAA tournament.
But if they can reach the Pac-12 championship game, they could rise as high as a No. 6 seed, which would be the Ducks’ highest seed since Ernie Kent led the team to a No. 3 seed and Elite Eight finish in 2007.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter

Gallery • 10 Photos

Ryan Kang

Oregon forward Dwayne Benjamin (0) shoots the jump shot over Utah guard Eris Winder (2) during the second half. The Oregon Ducks play the Utah Utes at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon on February 22, 2015. (Ryan Kang/Emerald)