The Four Factors:
• Effective field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
There was a point in this season when Oregon’s flimsy resume was desperate for a quality win. When then-No. 9 Utah came to town last month, many analysts were expecting the Ducks to not only lose, but get blown out by a team that counters every advantage Oregon typically owns.
Instead, Oregon came away with a 69-58 win. The Ducks out-rebounded the lanky Utes 35-31, had three players with double-digit scoring totals and forced 13 turnovers against one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. Instead of Joseph Young leading the Oregon offense on Senior Day, freshman Dillon Brooks paced the team with 19 points.
Now Oregon’s resume looks polished. The Ducks ascended to No. 29 in the RPI and virtually locked themselves into countless bracket projections.
So when No. 2 seed Oregon plays No. 3 seed Utah on Friday night in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinal, an NCAA Tournament bid won’t be on the table.
Instead, this game is chock-full of auxiliary storylines. Did Joseph Young deserve the Pac-12 Player of the Year award, or was Utah’s Delon Wright snubbed? Should Larry Krystkowiak have earned Coach of the Year honors over Dana Altman? Was Oregon’s run through the end of the season a fluke?
If one thing is certain, this game will go a long way towards answering those questions for the offseason ahead.

 
Friday’s matchup features two of the best offenses not only in the Pac-12, but in the country. According to KenPom, Utah is currently ranked No. 16 nationally in adjusted efficiency while the Ducks own the No. 20 ranking for the statistic.
Most of Utah’s offense comes from the pace set by its star guard Wright (14.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.1 spg), who exploded for 20 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three blocks in the Utes’ blowout of Stanford in the quarterfinal. Wright is currently ranked third on KenPom.com’s national Player of the Year rankings behind Wisconsin’s versatile center Frank Kaminsky and Arizona’s star freshman Stanley Johnson.
It’s safe to say that Oregon doesn’t have someone that can match up defensively against Wright. No matter what the Ducks do on defense, Wright will find a way to contribute either through his own scoring, or by setting his teammates up with assists.
Utah’s supporting cast is led by wing Jordan Loveridge (10.5 ppg), point guard Brandon Taylor (10.2 ppg, 3.4 apg) and center Jakob Poeltl (8.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg).
Loveridge and Taylor operate as Wright’s kick-out options. Stanford fell victim to that tradeoff time and time again as the Utes shot 12-19 (63 percent) from three point range on Thursday night. Poeltl, on the other hand, is a prototypical rebounding center.
The freshman doesn’t have a full arsenal of posts moves, but plays hard and gets to the tough areas on the court to soak up rebounds and put-back baskets. One of the biggest keys to Oregon’s victory over Utah in their first matchup was neutralizing Poeltl, who finished with just five points and four rebounds despite being at least five inches taller than any player that guarded him for an extended period of time.

While the two teams are essentially equal on offense, Utah has significant advantages in defensive metrics.
The Utes have the conference’s best effective field goal percentage against at 42.9 percent, while Oregon ranks seventh in that statistic at 49.7 percent. Utah is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in three point shooting percentage against and No. 2 in both two point shooting percentage against and blocked shot percentage.
Utah causes more turnovers and collects more defensive rebounds than Oregon, but tends to be the victim of high foul totals. Unfortunately for the Ducks, they’re one of the conference’s worst teams in terms of drawing free throws, making that category a matchup of the two teams’ weaknesses.
As fun as the matchup between Oregon’s offense and Utah’s defense is on paper, this game will be won and lost on the boards. The Utes shoot and make more three pointers than any other team in the Pac-12, but still own gaudy percentages from two point range, giving lots of weight to second chance points.
Jordan Bell needs to shake off his listless performance against Colorado on Thursday for the Ducks to have a chance at defending the paint against the Utes, while Dillon Brooks, Dwayne Benjamin and Elgin Cook have to turn in efficient outings on offense.
Keep an eye on Oregon’s point total in this matchup. The Ducks are a perfect 17-0 when they reach the 70-point mark and should be aiming for a similar total tonight.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter

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Pac-12 Tournament Four Factors: Oregon vs. Utah