If you’ve heard or read anything about Pacific-10 Conference basketball this season, it’s probably sounded something like this:
1) The teams are too soft.
2) The league is on a down year. It can’t compete with the likes of the Southeastern or Atlantic Coast Conferences.
3) The Pac-10 will only get two teams into the NCAA Tournament this season.
Answers: Wrong, wrong and might just be the case.
Welcome to the Pac-10, circa 2004. There’s Stanford, then there’s everybody else. Seems like a crapshoot for anybody but the Cardinal.
Right?
That’s true, but an unfortunate reality for the conference this season. Flat out, there’s just too much parity. When California can defeat Arizona, only after the Wildcats manhandled Oregon, which defeated the Golden Bears, it’s a sign.
It’s a sign that, well, it’s going to be a down year for the conference in the NCAA Tournament.
You can’t necessarily argue that the teams are too soft. They’ve gone 56-30 against Division I clubs this year, a 65.1 winning percentage. Of course, that record comes with a 3-7 combined record against the SEC and Big 12 Conference, but three of those defeats — Oregon’s losses to Kansas and Alabama and Arizona’s defeat at the hands of Florida — have been close. So close, in fact, that a points swing of five or more at any time of a game could have meant the difference. Factor that in, and that record shifts to 5-5 or 6-4.
It also can’t necessarily be argued that it’s a down year for the Pac-10. A conference is only as good as its bottom teams, and in that regard, the Pac-10 is doing somewhat poorly. Oregon State and Arizona State are the anchors. But they are dangerous anchors.
Oregon State almost defeated the Ducks on Saturday and the Sun Devils came within two points of upsetting second-place California.
It’s called parity, and that should be a stopping point for the pundits who try to rank the conferences. But, like above, it’s really a crapshoot to rank groups that have anywhere from eight to 14 teams. Those that try usually show inconsistencies in their rankings.
That parity is exactly what’s hurting the Pac-10 teams this season. If Arizona can’t defeat Washington or Southern California, how could it possibly defeat a team like Utah or Air Force? That’s a valid argument, one that will be used against the Pac-10 when determining the postseason field.
Joe Lunardi, the man in charge of Bracketology on ESPN.com, has only Stanford and Arizona getting into the Big Dance. Oregon is close; he lists the Ducks as one of the last four teams excluded from the field. California, one-half game ahead of Oregon in the standings, is in the second grouping of teams to be left out.
Obviously, neither Oregon nor California has done enough to impress Lunardi, endangering the Pac-10’s trend of getting at least three teams into the tournament. Not since the 1987-88 season has that happened.
Since then, only once — the 1992-93 season — has the conference placed three teams in the postseason tournament.
Brace yourself: It could be another one of those years.
It’s no guarantee just yet, but six teams, like 2002, is out the window. Same goes for a five-team field. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the same thing happen to a four-team possibility, although Oregon, California and Arizona could run over the field in the second half, which should force the tournament to take four teams.
The Wildcats, Ducks and Bears — the three teams in question — will have a spotlight following them for the rest of the season.
Not only will they be fighting for their postseason lives, but also for the good of the Pac-10.
It should be interesting to see what happens.