Can Oregon beat Cal?
That has been the question burning in my mind since they beat Washington last Saturday.
Anybody in his or her right mind has a yes or no answer to this question, but for me it’s different.
The two halves of my brain are duking it out, trying to decide if Oregon can actually pull this off or if it’s going to get steamrolled by the Golden Bears.
One half (my objective, journalistic, look-at-all-the-facts side) says no, Oregon can’t beat Cal. The two teams aren’t in the same league.
Oregon has lost to Indiana, but it was the first weekend of the season.
The Ducks also lost to Arizona State at home 28-13. The same Arizona State team was embarrassed by Cal 27-0 last week.
Cal has been dominant and, as everybody knows, it was one play away from beating top-ranked Southern California. If this game was played in Berkeley, Calif., it might have had a different result.
Cal is fifth in the country in scoring offense (39.0 points per game).
It is fourth in scoring defense (12.3 points per game). It leads the Pacific-10 Conference in both categories.
That doesn’t bode well for Oregon.
Cal is beating teams by 28 points per game. The team hasn’t allowed a point in its last two games.
Oregon’s offense has the potential to be great, but it hasn’t been consistent.
Individually, Cal also stands out.
The Golden Bears have the fourth-best rusher in the nation, running back J.J. Arrington (158.0 yards per game).
Cal also has the sixth-most efficient passer in the nation in former Oregonian (went to school in Beaverton for a few years) Aaron Rodgers (167.8).
To put it in layman’s terms, this team is crushing the competition and doesn’t seem to have a weakness.
Cal’s lowest rank in the major statistical categories in the Pac-10 is its – and no I’m not kidding – pass offense at No. 5 in the conference.
Oregon’s defense has been playing well, but playing well against the bottom feeders of the conference. The Ducks haven’t faced a running back of Arrington’s caliber since Oklahoma’s freshman sensation Adrian Peterson flattened them for 183 yards.
Not to mention that Rodgers is completing over 70 percent of his passes and is averaging almost nine yards per attempt, both first in the conference.
I know that Oregon’s defense ranks in the upper half of the conference in many statistical categories. Unfortunately for the Ducks, they also allowed him to throw for three touchdowns.
Against the second-best pass defense in the conference, USC, Rodgers had one of the best passing days in Pac-10 history. He completed his first 23 passes of the game (and stole the Pac-10 Player of the Week away from Kellen Clemens’ six-touchdown performance against Washington State) on his way to going 29 of 31 for 267 yards and a touchdown.
The Ducks just don’t have the continuity and the schemes to shut down this Cal team.
They will play well against the Golden Bears, much like against Oklahoma, but the game will have the same result – an Oregon loss.
Unfortunately, the other side of my brain (the I-still-have-school-pride-and-am-optimistic side) has been overwhelmed by the pure statistics and overall dominance of the Golden Bears. The “dark side” of my mind has won this argument.
But the other side of the mind is content with the fact that Oregon’s season isn’t lost if it loses.
It hopes.

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