The war in Iraq, soaring gas prices and lack of a toy craze, such as yesteryear’s Furby or Tickle Me Elmo, doesn’t seem to have dampened holiday shoppers’ enthusiasm this year, experts say.
Sales this shopping season are expected to be the highest since 1999 with a 4 percent increase over last year’s gift-buying spree, according to Forbes magazine and the National Retail Federation, the largest retail trade association in America. The NRF projects retail sales should hit just below $220 billion, a $10 billion increase over last year’s sales, with consumers spending $265 individually the weekend after Thanksgiving.
But Deloitte Research, a firm that studies the retail market over the holiday season, said this year’s sales won’t be as strong as last year’s due to tax cuts given in 2003 and an increase in home bankruptcies this year, although these factors have not greatly impacted the market.
“It sounds like sales will be strong,” said University marketing associate professor Dave Boush, citing Forbes’ 4 percent statistic as an indicator of a stronger economy. “The trend toward consumer electronics is strong this year.”
Electronics, along with music and home-related items, are expected to be the big sellers, according to the National Research Federation. In addition, high-end jewelry and apparel retailers are both experiencing a jump in sales despite higher prices for their inventory, according to the NRF.
The biggest sellers this holiday are cashmere sweaters, DVDs, iPods, plasma TVs, Victoria’s Secret lingerie, video games and poker sets, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a worldwide group of retailers and shopping center merchants.
An electronic version of the popular poker game Texas Hold ‘Em is what Susan Dickens, parent of a University student, said she’s been hunting for this year.
Dickens, who was shopping at the University Bookstore, said stores that have prevented her from picking up the game either because the game was sold out or the stores didn’t sell it.
“This year’s been tough, but Christmas time is when me and my family splurge,” Dickens said. She added that this year she and the family are splurging a bit less than earlier years.
Splurging less is a trend across America as bargain buyers and stiff competition from discount stores like Wal-Mart are dropping gift spending this holiday.
While higher-end stores have received a boost, analysts have pointed to the typical Wal-Mart consumer to get an idea of holiday trends this year. According to Deloitte Research, high oil prices have contributed to the decline of spending this year for Wal-Mart shoppers, who see larger gas prices as a tax that limits spending during the holiday.
Yet having no cash in hand but spending nonetheless is typical for the American shopper. According to Boush, the typical consumer will put thousands on credit cards in order to put packages underneath the tree. Thrifty Living, a shopping resource offered by the University of Illinois, said typical shoppers spend $100 to $500 more
on credit cards than
they plan.
“It’s about consumer confidence, not what’s in a bank account,” Boush said.
As for the winner and loser of the holiday season, high expectations for Apple iPod sales have sent its stock soaring up 6 percent while Wal-Mart’s dropped 3 percent.

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