Some people may no longer have health insurance. Others may no longer be able to pay for child-care. And some children who are victims of abuse may lose access to customized programs of care.
These are just some of the myriad potential effects to the state’s health and human services if voters reject Measure 30 in the Feb. 2 special election.
The measure calls for an increase in income and other taxes in an attempt to alleviate Oregon’s budget shortfall. If the measure passes, the state stands to gain about $800 million from the income tax surcharges; If it fails, it could lead to cuts of about $544 million across state agencies.
A significant chunk of the cut will be carved out the state’s Department of Human Services.
“If the measure fails, the department has been directed by the legislature to cut $206.9 million,” DHS spokesman Jim Sellers said.
The Department administers various services, such as the Oregon Health Plan, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, food stamps, the state’s JOBS program and public health programs.
Sellers said the Oregon Health Plan is most likely to bear the brunt of the cuts; of the total potential amount, about $182 million will be taken from OHP-related funding, Sellers said.
The health plan’s Standard package, which was created for poor adults who do not qualify for federal Medicaid, will be completely eliminated, Sellers said. Statewide, almost 46,000 people are on the Standard plan.
In addition, those on OHP’s Plus plan are likely to lose some benefits, such as mental health and chemical dependency treatment coverage, along with vision and dental coverage. About 125,000 low-income adults may lose the dental and vision coverage, according to department statistics.
Sellers said there are about 294,530 people on the Plus plan statewide.
Director for Lane County Health and Human Services Rob Rockstroh said 6,000 to 8,000 people in Lane County would no longer be eligible for the Oregon Health plan should Measure 30 fail.
“If they got sick and went to the emergency room, they’d have no ability to pay,” Rockstroh said. He added that hospitals would probably have to absorb the extra costs, and people could die for lack of access.
Child, Adult and Family services would also be affected, taking a cut of about $17.4 million in various sectors. Gambling treatment programs are also likely to be axed, as well as child-care assistance for students.
Funds to the state’s System of Care program, which provides different services to children, may also be reduced, meaning longer stays in foster care. And about 2,000 pregnant women may lose medical assistance and no longer have access to prenatal and other health care services, according to DHS statistics.
Cuts could go into effect at early as May 2004 if the measure fails. Calling the budget-balancing process “long and complicated,” Rockstroh said exactly how and where the money might be deducted is still being negotiated at state level.
Rockstroh said Lane County, which constitutes about 10 percent of the total state budget, already lost some of its financing in the last round of cuts.
Based on voter polls, the measure will most likely fail, Rockstroh said, but he said he isn’t certain how things will work out on Feb. 2.
“I really believe that we will lose an awful lot of services, but I just don’t know,” he said.
He said some people might argue that private charitable organizations will be able to help in the areas that state has to turn away.
“People have to recognize that the public sector funds these nonprofit charitable sectors,” he said. “So you won’t see them being able pick up the slack.”
And losses in one sector affect the entire system, officials say.
While most cuts will probably affect the health insurance sector, losing health coverage can affect struggling families in other ways, said John Radich, DHS’ Lane County service delivery manager for Area 5.
For instance, loss of alcohol or drug treatment may compromise the agency’s attempts to stabilize a family or allow people to sustain employment. According to department statistics, about 2,000 of the adults on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families or welfare who are required to work as part of their eligibility have mental health or chemical dependency problems, which must be addressed before they can become self-sufficient.
“I hope that people will realize the impact on certain groups,” Radich said.
Considering the potential extent and impact of reductions, department officials are trying to make the best out of the situation.
“What we’re trying to do is prevent the most harm to the most vulnerable,” Sellers said.