The University of Oregon’s admissions office overestimated the number of enrolled out-of-state students for the 2024-2025 school year by 448 students, resulting in subsequent tuition increases for next year’s incoming class.

With a tuition-driven budget, the university is expected to raise tuition by 3% for the class of 2029 for both in-state and out-of-state students after not reaching its initial enrollment goal. With the Oregon Guarantee, which locks tuition prices for students for five years, only next year’s cohort is expected to receive an increase. 

According to the Board of Trustees meeting minutes from Sept. 16 and 17, 2,984 out-of-state students were projected to enroll in 2024. The actual enrollment was 2,536 students.

Although the out-of-state numbers are significantly lower than the projected numbers, there is still an increase in out-of-state enrollment from last year. In 2023, the number of enrolled non-resident students was 2,491.

Anna Schmidt-MacKenzie is the university’s associate vice president and chief of staff for the Division of Student Services and Enrollment Management. 

“With the Oregon Guarantee, the only increases that happen are for the next cohort, and [students] have a guarantee for five years. So for this year’s students, there will be no increase in tuition or fees. The first possible increase would be for the next cycle,” Schmidt-MacKenzi said. 

According to Schmidt-MacKenzie, changes in tuition are proposed by the Tuition and Fees Advisory Board, which is made up of faculty, staff and students. TFAB meets routinely throughout the year and presents the increases to the Board of Trustees in March 2025 for approval.  

Tuition for the class of 2029 is expected to rise by 3%, an increase, Schmidt-MacKenzie said.

“That’s pretty normal. I think if you look at the past five years, it’s been three and a half to no more than four and a half percent increases.” 

According to the Office of the President, the out-of-state tuition for the 2024 undergraduate cohort is $41,865.30 per year for five years and the in-state tuition is $13,403.25 per year for five years. 

Jamie Moffitt is UO’s senior vice president for finance and administration and chief financial officer. At the Sept. 16 and 17 Board of Trustees meeting, she projected that despite the smaller than targeted non-resident enrollment, the financial impact won’t be felt for a few years. 

“This is due to the fact that the small COVID[-19] class from fall of 2020 completed its fourth year in June 2024 with many of those students graduating. This class is being replaced with the larger, though below target, fall 2024 class, which creates a one-time boost to tuition revenue,” Moffitt said in the Board meeting minutes.

The state of Oregon is currently ranked 44th in the nation for per-student state investments for higher education, according to the State Higher Education Finance Report. UO receives a lower level of state support compared to other Oregon public institutions. 

According to the UO Transparency and Accountability website, in 2019, UO received $72.4 million in total funding from the state, while Oregon State University received $211.3 million and Portland State University received $97.6 million. This has resulted in UO relying more heavily on student tuition. 

This year, according to UO spokesperson Eric Howald, the school is receiving roughly $90 million from the state with a budget of roughly $600 million. 

The two main sources of UO’s budget are student tuition and state government support, and they cover a majority of the university’s academic operating costs. 

“Many of our expenses have to do with our faculty and staff. Labor costs are high. They’re roughly 80% of our budget. That three and a half to four [percent] increases in tuition [are] a reflection of those higher costs and many of those rest with the labor market,” Schmidt-MacKenzie said.

In order to predict the number of enrolled students each year, Schmidt-MacKenzie said, an enrollment team creates a “glide path of targets,” using different forms of data. 

“We look at how many students are applying to the University of Oregon, we look at data like, ‘How many people are coming to visit campus? Are they enjoying their campus experience?’” Schmidt-MacKenzie said. “We’re always trying to take that feedback and use that data to say, ‘How many students do we think are going to show up on day one or week four?’”   

The university is making plans to increase the number of out-of-state students at a faster rate, according to the Board of Trustees meeting minutes from Sept. 16 and 17. Moffitt announced plans for a new scholarship aimed at non-resident students. 

“As was discussed in the Board meeting last September for fall 2024 [FY25], the university launched a new scholarship program to attract more non-resident students. Roughly $16 million in incremental remissions was authorized with the aspiration of reaching a fall 2024 non-resident and international student class of 3,134 students.”