Lane County saw a sizable drop in COVID-19 cases over the University of Oregon’s winter break, though the decline may not be linked to the student population, according to Patrick Luedtke, the senior public health officer for Lane County.
The Oregon Health Authority reported an average of around 55 new cases in Lane County per day from Dec. 7-12, the final week of fall term, with the highest being 75 on Dec. 7 and the lowest being 36 on Dec. 9.
Weeks later on Dec. 21, the case count in Lane County dropped to 26. These low numbers repeated on Dec. 26 and 27, and then began to rise steadily.
Luedtke said there may not be a correlation between the lack of the student population in Eugene over the break and the low number of reported positive cases, but rather it is an example of surveillance bias.
Surveillance bias, he said, is the phenomenon in which one looks at statistics with a small scope instead of looking at the bigger picture that the statistics show.
Despite some brief rises and drops in the number of cases, the case count leveled out after a brief spike as students came back to Eugene after winter break. Winter term began on Jan. 8, and Lane County reported 105 new cases on that day, according to OHA. The case count dropped to 86 new cases on Jan. 15, and then rose to 90 cases on Jan. 22.
In terms of what caused the spikes in cases around the holidays, Luedtke suggested that it was a result of inconsistencies in the testing systems. According to Luedtke, testing centers vary in the days that they test, which means that they release tests on different days. Additionally, Luedtke pointed to people simply getting lazy about following safety procedures around the holidays.
According to Luedtke, the University of Oregon was the number one cause of COVID-19 infection spread in Lane County in October of 2020, but as of Jan. 13, UO-related activity was not in the top three causes of infection spreading. The top reasons were infection spread at businesses and then spread in long-term care homes.
University spokesperson Kay Jarvis echoed this sentiment as well after pointing to the data that the university updates regularly on its website.
Jarvis wrote, “After an initial spike early last term, the case rate associated with the UO was actually lower than that of the broader Lane County community.”
Since Luedtke spoke with the Emerald, UO MAP testing reported that on and off campus new case counts spiked to 139 new cases on Jan. 11, and an additional 174 new cases as of Jan. 18.
“These systems are not perfect,” Luedtke said. “But if you wear masks, stay 6 feet apart and practice good hand hygiene, your risk will be markedly decreased.”
Luedkte said on Jan. 13 that while UO students are not contributing to statistics as a major source of infection spreading, businesses around Eugene are one of the top sources of infection spread.
Lily Morey, a manager at Sizzle Pie, and employee Rachel Leveille said that while the restaurant’s COVID-19 procedures are thorough and the employees are grateful for it, patrons are not as helpful. Morey and Leveille said that they frequently see negligence from people visiting Sizzle Pie, including the student population.
“We don’t like delivering to [the UO] campus,” said Morey. “It is the least safe area for sending our drivers into.”
Luedtke said the university is the fourth-leading cause of COVID-19 infection spread in Lane County, but warned to not let this news influence future activity. “Now is not the time, when we’re getting 1,000 cases every 13 days, to let your guard down.”
“We have a hundred days of misery until the summer,” said Luedtke.
