Over the years, political fortunes in Oregon have constantly shifted in both the Republican and Democratic parties, resulting in losses and gains in the number of party-loyal voters both in state as well as nationally.
Different times and circumstances influence the type of political ideology to which voters wish to adhere.
“Since 1950 the trend has been more pro-Republican,” University Political Science Assistant Professor Eric McGhee said, speaking of national historical voting trends. He said many factors may have influenced this change: In the South, for instance, voters had been heavily democratic early in the 20th century, but when the Democratic Party became the party of civil rights in the 1960s, it disengaged some of its southern voters.
McGhee added that the party’s emphasis on social welfare issues may also have marginalized some
middle-class and more conservative voters, who may have felt that issues of concern to them were not going to be addressed.
Oregon seems to have followed a similar trajectory with more people registering as Republicans over time. About 20 years ago, only Malheur County had more registered Republicans than Democrats — now at least 26 of the 36 counties have more registered Republicans than Democrats, Oregon Republican Party Chairman Kevin Mannix said.
Mannix said that in that twenty years, the Democratic lead has shrunk from 300,000 registered to about 65,000.
According to secretary of state voter registration numbers compiled in August 2004, nine counties had more Democrats registered than Republicans, with a total 762,781 Democrats and 697,346 Republicans registered statewide.
While certain counties like Lane and Multnomah remain staunchly Democrat, Mannix said rural and suburban Oregon is more Republican, and the party has gained more support from farmers, fishers and loggers.
Despite the Republican Party’s gains, the leadership still lies solidly in Democratic hands.
“Democrats in the last couple of elections have won all the statewide elections,” said Democratic Party of Oregon’s Executive Director Neel Pender.
Governor Ted Kulongoski is a
Democrat and three of his immediate predecessors have all been Democrats. Moreover, in the presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won in Oregon since 1988. And although Michael Dukakis received 56,080 more votes than Republican George Bush Sr. in the state that year, Bush did better nationally and was elected.
Still, it is difficult to classify the state as definitely pro-Democrat or pro-Republican.
While Democratic candidate Bill Clinton had a clear majority in 1992 and 1996 over George Bush Sr. and Bob Dole, respectively, in 2000,
Democrat Al Gore whisked Oregon from President George W. Bush by less than a percent, according to the Oregon Blue Book.
And in this year’s presidential election, neither party seems to have a clear advantage — Oregon is considered a swing state and is being aggressively courted by both President Bush and Democratic Party candidate Sen. John Kerry.
Pender says the Democratic Party’s support base lies mainly west of the Cascades, but support goes beyond the predominantly urban areas like Portland, where there is a huge party advantage.
“We’re a statewide party,” he said. “We think our issues resonate with people in the rural areas.”
Pender said changes in the state’s Republican Party philosophy in recent years may have pushed some voters to look for alternatives.
“Philosophically, the Republican Party was really co-opted by the Christian coalition,” he said, adding that in some ways this could have marginalized more modern progressive Republicans.
Mannix, who was once a Democrat legislator, attributed the shift in some areas to the fact that Democrats have become “more ideological” while Republicans have become “more practical” about addressing people’s problems.
Historically, demographics also play a part in which party gets the vote. McGhee said in general, more urban areas vote Democrat, while rural areas vote Republican.
“Typically, when the economy is bad, voters vote out the incumbents regardless of whether it’s Democratic or Republican,” McGhee said.

[email protected]