As college campuses begin to flood with returning students and businesses open their doors after the holiday season, health officials in the community are still concerned that another wave of the H1N1 influenza virus will appear.
“One thing that we do know is that the flu comes in waves,” said Betsy Meredith, the nursing supervisor for Lane County Public Health. “We saw a wave in April of last year, and attention went away but the flu didn’t, and then there was a bout of extremely ill people in August, and then we saw a big wave in the fall after school started.”
Meredith said she expects to see another wave arise in the community after the end of the holidays, when many come in contact with what she calls “a melting pot of germs.”
Lane County Public Health has held numerous vaccine clinics for the community as shipments of the H1N1 vaccine became available, though she said demand for the vaccine has diminished in the past weeks.
Meredith said while the number of confirmed cases showing up at clinics and in hospitals has seen a substantial drop, there are still many who are susceptible.
“We’re counting the number of people hospitalized with confirmed influenza symptoms, but we know there is plenty of people still being seen in Portland and elsewhere with symptoms, so it’s still present in the community,” Meredith said.
The University Health Center has also seen a decline in its numbers of confirmed cases, and former health center director Tom Ryan said that while the flu is dormant, there are still plenty of people who should be vaccinated.
“If we are fortunate, (the fall term) will be the only wave we will see at the University,” Ryan said. “The concern is that many don’t have the immunity and it will flare back up, but nobody really knows.”
Current health center director Mike Eyster said that as of last Friday, the health center had seen 1,494 cases of influenza-like illnesses and “are continuing to see small numbers.”
“We administered 40 doses of vaccine last week,” Eyster said. “And only saw eight cases.”
After the first cases of H1N1 were confirmed last April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rapidly began testing for stage one of the vaccine and expected the distribution to follow in six months, but concerns arose when the start of flu season came without the H1N1 vaccine. However, Ryan was pleased with the time it took for Oregon, specifically the University, to receive and distribute its allotted shipments to campus.
“There was a lot of frustration with the flu vaccine and how it was distributed,” Ryan said. “Many expected it to be here before the flu was, but the CDC was clear that once they developed the vaccine, it would take six months to be fully distributed throughout the nation, and that’s what happened.”
On Saturday, President Barack Obama proclaimed this week as National Influenza Vaccination Week.
In his statement, Obama said “every American has a role to play in fighting the H1N1 flu,” and that while many may not be in the “high-risk” categories, he “encourages those who have not yet received the H1N1 flu vaccine to do so.”
But what will the future hold for H1N1?
Meredith believes it will be around for years to come, but with it will be a higher availability of vaccines.
“I have had the experience that the flu tends to change its mind on you the minute we say something,” Meredith said. “I do expect that H1N1 — or something close to it — will be around for a while, but I think the vaccine will be included with seasonal flu vaccine this year and that will make it easier to get immunized.”
Ryan had a more cryptic outlook for the flu.
“I think the best I can say is that nobody really knows what the future of the H1N1 virus will be,” Ryan said. “What could happen could be anything. Public health folks will always say ‘get immunized.’ It is the safest bet.”
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