The Factors:
• Effective field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line or fouls the opposing team
Oregon men’s basketball finds itself in a must-win situation against Colorado as the chase for the NCAA tournament is officially in the home stretch.
Following their loss to UCLA on Saturday, the Ducks (18-8, 8-5) need to avoid bad losses and rack up at least one more quality win to have a chance at an at large bid to the tournament. Colorado (11-12, 4-7) is a team that Oregon should beat and will likely be the final opponent the Ducks will be favored against.
The Buffaloes were the latest victims to Cal’s buzzer-beater streak and have now lost seven of their last nine games. Although the bulk of Colorado’s team is relatively lackluster, Askia Booker, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are a tough matchup for any Pac-12 team.

Colorado has a fairly mediocre offense. The Buffs are in the bottom half of the Pac-12 in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate, but rebound well on the offensive glass and draw a good amount of fouls.
Most of the Colorado offense is generated by Booker, who is used on a whopping 32.5 percent of Colorado’s possessions. Booker has averaged 17.3 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.3 per game this season and has really carried the Buffs through a rough season.
Xavier Johnson is Colorado’s next-biggest statistical contributor. Johnson (11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) has made his biggest impact down low this year, although he has the skill set to attack from the perimeter as well.
Scott, on the other hand, has missed eight Pac-12 games this season because of injuries, and just returned to the lineup for the team’s past two games. Scott (13.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg) almost never commits turnovers, rebounds extremely well and has a decent amount of skill on the block to score with.
Oregon’s offense continues to exploit its shooting totals. With an effective field goal percentage of 53.5 percent in Pac-12 play, the Ducks have the second-best offense in the conference by that metric.

Colorado owns several advantages on the defensive end. The Buffs have a middle-of-the-pack defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, but force turnovers and rebounds noticeably better than Oregon does. Colorado avoids sending teams to the free throw line better than most teams in the conference as well.
The Ducks have the worst interior defense in the Pac-12 as they allow a 53.1 percent shooting mark on two point shots and 32.6 percent of potential offensive rebounds to conference opponents.
Those two statistics will be key factors in this game, especially with Scott back in the Colorado lineup.
As the Buffs transition back into an interior team for the final portion of the season, Oregon must prevent the points-in-the-paint total and lock down the Colorado forwards to have success in this game.
Although advanced metrics say this should be an easy game for Oregon, the presence of Josh Scott is enough to make this game interesting. The Ducks should win, but it will be tough sledding against a decent Colorado defense.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter