This was supposed to be a column about taking California seriously.
After listening to Chip Kelly and Oregon’s players talk about the Golden Bears over the weekend, I came away thinking this game could be tougher than many had imagined. I thought about last year’s showing in Berkeley, how the Ducks needed a decisive nine-and-a-half minute drive in the fourth quarter to seal a 15-13 victory. That prolific Chip Kelly offense, for once, had been slowed nearly to a halt until the very end.
I thought about all of that, and wondered whether this year would be any different. It was a home game, sure, but wasn’t it dangerous to overlook a team that came within three points of knocking off the Ducks last year? Haven’t past years proved that weird things happen when Oregon matches up with the Golden Bears?
Then the betting line came out on Sunday night, and the disrespect towards California seemed even more apparent. A 24-point spread? Even with Oregon playing at as high level of late, it seemed a bit high.
Put everything together, and you’ve got all of the ingredients for a monumental upset.
It won’t happen.
Late on Tuesday night, I finally managed to sit down and plunge deeper into the statistics. California is 3-1, yes, and easily could have been undefeated had it pulled out a victory in a close game against Washington two weeks ago. Defensively, the Golden Bears are allowing just 78.2 rushing yards per game on a meager 2.7 yards per carry, while also averaging 3.25 sacks. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones are two of the most explosive threats in the Pac-12, and quarterback Zach Maynard has proven a worthy replacement for Kevin Riley.@@http://www.calbears.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/cal-m-footbl-sched.html@@@@http://www.calbears.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2011-2012/teamcume.html@@
It all looks pretty intimidating until you realize where, and against whom, those numbers are coming from. Of California’s four opponents thus far, only Washington could be described as competent. The Golden Bears handily defeated Fresno State to open the season, then barely escaped with a three-point victory in overtime at Colorado. Their most lopsided win came against Presbyterian on Sept. 17, a school that I had never even heard of until looking at the schedule.
So in other words, take all of those statistics with a healthy grain of salt. California has yet to face a team even remotely as talented as Oregon this year, and traveling to Autzen Stadium certainly won’t help matters. The Ducks have won 18 straight games at home, and it’s exceedingly difficult to imagine that streak being broken by California.
We all remember what happened the last time the Golden Bears played in Eugene. They were flying high at No. 6 in the country, and the Ducks pummeled them with a 42-point outburst. Maynard has never played in any sort of hostile environment, let alone Autzen Stadium. Expecting such an inexperienced player to carry his team to an upset on the road is simply too much to ask.
Were this game to be played in Berkley, it would be far more worrisome. California does possess a fair amount of talent, after all, and its athletes have proven capable of stopping the Oregon offense under the right conditions.
It’s just not happening this time. The only way the Ducks lose this game is if they abandon all fundamentals or commit penalties and turnovers at an LSU-game rate. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.
Normally, I don’t like to make bold predictions, even when the end result seems all but guaranteed. They almost always seem to backfire, and I’ll be the first to eat my words if Cal turns out to be better than anyone thought.
Don’t count on it.