While the government’s census report will not be complete until sometime next year, The Brookings Institution has released a 168-page document looking at changes in the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. The report is seen as a preview for what the census will show. These cities account for two-thirds of our population and 75 percent of our gross domestic product, so they paint a relatively broad and important picture.
And what those changes show is that our country is — changing.
First of all, we are growing, and fast. We passed the 300 million mark in 2006 and are projected to top 350 million people by 2030. What is most evident within that growth, however, is that 83 percent of the growth was from non-whites, and that one in four kids under 18 has at least one immigrant parent. Also, the baby boomers are no longer babies; there are more than 100 million senior citizens today.
The gap between the haves and have-nots is also growing. Low wage employees saw their real hourly earnings fall by 8 percent, while the wealthiest saw theirs rise by 3 percent. Asians and whites are more than twice as likely to hold a bachelor’s degree as African Americans and Latinos.
Finally, the suburbs are becoming more diverse. The majority of all ethnic and racial groups now live in suburbs, showing a growing trend of movement from the inner cities to the outlying areas. Also, the elderly are now much more common in suburbs, a lifestyle that does not typically correspond with older people.
From a political standpoint, these trends could have large impacts on voting trends and the well-being of our nation.
Cities have always been traditionally more liberal than rural areas. This typically includes the outlying suburbs of cities. With the growth of senior citizens (who tend to be more conservative) not just in population, but within these suburbs, we could see a shift in the voting from the left to the right in the cities. However, this movement may be somewhat counterbalanced by the growth of minority groups (typically more liberal) again not just in population, but within the suburbs. The juxtaposition of these two groups could make for an interesting split in the years to come.
We also need to be concerned with the growing dichotomy in education between whites and minority groups. The minority population is exploding, mainly due to enormous growth among Latinos. With such significant growth coming from minority groups, the idea that whites are more than twice as likely to have a bachelor’s degree as African Americans and Latinos is unacceptable. Moves must be made to tighten that gap, to ensure that the growing population seeks higher levels of education to remain competitive.
With such a large growth of minority groups (specifically Latinos) and the movement to the suburbs, our country needs to shift several ways of thinking.
Immigration reform is obviously a growing priority. The methods we currently have are failing, out of date, and even unconstitutional (see Arizona). What the Brookings report shows us is that the Latino population is growing exponentially, and instead of trying to limit that growth, we need to be focused on assimilating this group and making sure they continue to be productive members of our society. Latinos aren’t the only minority group that is growing quickly, but they certainly are the most noticeable. It is of the utmost importance to our continued prosperity that we incorporate minorities into our future.
The sprawl of the suburbs is also going to pose a problem. Suburbs are inherently energy inefficient in numerous ways, not the least of which is commute times. As more and more people move to the suburbs, more cars are needed to get those people to work. That means not only more fossil fuels, but also more congestion leading to a waste of gas. While shifting the populace to the cities might sound like a good idea, it would be difficult for the government to implement such a program, short of tax breaks for inner city housing. A more practical approach would be the development of better mass transit to and from the suburbs in order to cut down on the pollution caused by vehicles. With a revamped train, subway, and bus system, we could limit the harmful side effects of suburban life.
These once-every-decade reports are not simply interesting factoids. They provide crucial, important information about the direction our country is heading in. They allow us to prepare for coming issues before they strike, and they allow us to shift our way of thinking before it becomes too late to solve a problem. While we appear to have our work cut out for us, if there is anything this country has shown in its past, it is our ability to deal with a wide range of problems that defines us.
While the official census report will not be known until next year, the Brookings report gives us a snap shot of where we currently stand.
We stand to make some drastic changes.
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