With last Saturday’s win over the USC Trojans, the Ducks moved to 10-1 and sat in prime position to make the College Football Playoffs. The Daily Emerald broke down the possible paths for the Ducks to make the College Football Playoff going into the final matchup against the Washington Huskies (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten).

A win over Washington, with minimal movement from other top 12 teams, means…

In the event that Oregon wins this week against an unranked Washington, the Ducks would be in the No. 5-8 range, which would mean hosting a playoff game against a No. 9-12 team. The Ducks sit at No. 6 heading into this matchup, which would mean playing the No. 11 seed — likely either the Big 12’s BYU Cougars (currently ranked No. 11) or the ACC’s Miami Hurricanes (who could get in with a championship autobid and outrank the Group of 5 team).

Last season, every team that hosted a playoff game in the first round won its matchup by multiple scores. The last team in Oregon’s position was Penn State, who won its matchup against the No. 11 SMU Mustangs, 38-10. 

A win over Washington, with massive upsets, means…

One potential shakeup in the Big Ten is if No. 15 Michigan can upset No. 1 Ohio State at Michigan Stadium. This is one of the most likely upsets in the last week of college football season, considering Michigan has won the last four matchups, all of which were upsets. Michigan leads Ohio State 62-51-6 in the history of the rivalry.

Another potential upset is No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas. Texas is 4-1 over their last five meetings and is 77-37-5 against the Aggies all-time. Either of those upsets could put Oregon in a top four position and a Michigan win would give them a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game –– putting the Ducks in position for a top four seed and a first-round College Football Playoff bye. 

A loss at Washington, with minimal movement from other top 12 teams, means…

This outcome is not that unlikely, given that Oregon has not won in Seattle since 2021. Oregon’s last matchup with Washington was almost exactly one year ago, where the Ducks blew out the Huskies 49-21 at Autzen Stadium. A loss would put Oregon in a tough spot, but not out of the race. 

With losses from teams on the bubble like No. 17 USC and No. 23 Georgia Tech, the Ducks would likely land in the No. 8-12 area. Oregon would benefit from a No. 8 ranking, which would give it a first-round home game instead of heading on the road. A 9-12 ranking is not ideal, but making the playoffs at all keeps the dream of a national championship alive.

Loss against Huskies, with other upsets, means…

Other teams currently with one loss — No. 4 Georgia (10-1, 7-1 SEC), No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) and No. 7 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1 SEC) — all have favorable matchups against lower-ranked opponents. One game that stands out as a potential upset is Georgia vs. Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is 9-2 following their loss against Pittsburgh, but a rivalry matchup against Georgia could rally the Yellow Jackets to push for a Week 14 upset.

In the event that the Ducks lose, a loss from one of the previously mentioned teams could make the Ducks look competitive to the selection committee, given that six other two-loss teams currently sit in the top 12.