By nature, baseball is supposed to be a steady sport.
Baseball’s continuity lends itself to the sport’s simple nature. Compared to other sports, baseball contains very few variables at any juncture in a game.
It’s the pitcher versus the batter. Everything in between – fielders, the dimensions of the ballpark and the weather – are essentially statistical white noise when examining one snapshot of the game at a time.
But there is one variable that has a significant impact on how each at bat plays out: equipment.
In 1975, the NCAA decided to implement metal bats into college baseball. Compared to wooden ones, metal bats generate significantly higher exit speeds when a batter makes contact with a baseball. This leads to more offense and by extension, a more exciting sport.
For years college baseball was known for its ridiculous run totals, even at the sport’s highest levels. In fact, pitchers were heralded for keeping their ERA under 7.00 during the postseason.
But ERAs weren’t the only things getting blasted by the composite aluminum bats. Every time a batter squared up on the ball, every infielder was put at risk of getting beaned by a baseball traveling over 130 miles per hour.
In 2009, the NCAA decided that its previous model for measuring the amount of power in a bat, called Ball Exit Speed Ratio was no longer suitable for the sport. BSER’s equation failed to analyze the power of a bat that was “broken in.”
So in comes the Bat-Ball Coefficient of Restitution. The new ratio measured the force of the bat hitting the ball during the brief moment that the two instruments actually collide, leading to sweeping changes in how metal bats were made.
If BESR composite bats were trampolines, BBCOR alloy bats were hardwood floors.
By 2011, BBCOR was the standard across nearly every prep-level baseball league and by 2014, college baseball had its lowest home run rate since before aluminum bats were introduced in 1975.
Just when pitchers started to solidify their dominance at the college level, another equipment change made its way into the rule book.
This time, the NCAA introduced a flat-seam baseball, which are harder for pitchers to grip, to counteract the powerless BBCOR bats.
Early returns show that the new ball has helped offenses, but hasn’t necessarily affected pitchers when it comes to control.
Home runs have returned to normal levels, leading to higher isolated power levels and runs per game, but strikeout and walk rates have stayed relatively steady.
Of course, Oregon’s offense has regressed since the introduction of the new baseballs, while its defense has felt the sting of opposing offenses. Oregon’s slugging percentage, batting average and home run rate are all down from a year ago. The Ducks’ ERA has ballooned from 3.06 to 3.72, while Oregon has already allowed 13 home runs this season after allowing just 16 the year before.
It’s still too early to tell if flat seam baseballs are the answer to reversing the damage of BBCOR bats. At the very least, the new baseballs are doing something to make the game more exciting outside of Eugene.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter