A new poll released Monday shows the gubernatorial race could be Oregon’s closest in 60 years.
The Portland polling firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. polled 500 likely Oregon voters on Sunday and Monday last week and found that Republican Chris Dudley held a slight lead by three percentage points over Democrat John Kitzhaber, with Dudley at 46 percent to Kitzhaber’s 43 percent. However, a final poll by the same company released yesterday on the race for governor revealed that those numbers switched, with Kitzhaber holding a three-point-lead over Dudley. The final poll asked the same question to a new set of 500 likely voters.
The poll’s margin of error is 4 percent and the back and forth nature of the recent survey results prompted one pollster to postulate this could be one of the closest gubernatorial races in decades.
The latest poll comes just days after President Barack Obama visited Portland to stump for Kitzhaber.
Tim Hibbitts, a partner in Davis, Hibbitts & Midgall, said the survey represented an extremely close competition.
“The closest gubernatorial election in the last 60 years was in 2002, between Ted Kulongoski and his opponent Kevin Mannix, who lost by less than 3 percentage points,” Hibbits said. “I will be surprised if its any clearer this year. I would not be surprised if we do not know the winner (tonight). It’s just that close.”
Hibbitts said the newest poll doesn’t diverge from polls his company and others that have shown Kitzhaber, a former governor, running neck and neck with former NBA player and political newcomer Dudley.
“For four and a half months no one has been able to establish a real lead,” Hibbitts said.
Kate Nix, vice president of University Democrats, voiced her support of Kitzhaber, but was not surprised by the competitiveness of the gubernatorial race. Nix said tough competition from the right was a familiar part of the Oregon political landscape, as well as the result of a general malaise affecting many voters.
“The political climate in Oregon has been, and still is, absolutely polarized,” she said. “I think this race really does reflect peoples dissatisfaction of the state of the world.”
Monday’s poll also shows Republicans could pick up a number of seats in the state legislature. Democrats control both houses with large majorities. The Oregon House of Representatives now consists of 36 Democrats and 24 Republicans; the Oregon Senate consists of 18 Democrats and 12 Republicans; and the office of governor is held by Democrat Ted Kulongoski.
The GOP hopes to bolster their numbers in the state legislature, but the race for the governor’s office remains a political grail very much within Republican reach.
University Political Science Professor Daniel HoSang agreed with Nix that the political climate in the state and the country favors Republicans in states that are usually solidly democratic.
“It’s an anti-incumbency mood in the country, which Democrats are obviously more susceptible to,” Hosang said. “Republicans still have a pretty big registration gap to make up for …  it’s all within the margin of error.”
Hosang said the surprising closeness of the Congressional race for 4th District between incumbent Peter DeFazio and challenger Art Robinson exemplifies the anti-incumbent message that has defined this midterm election season.
“I don’t think DeFazio expected this race to be so tight,” he said. “I would be shocked if he lost, but I would not be shocked if Dudley won.”
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