As Jan. 26 looms near, some Oregonians are still undecided on whether to support or oppose state ballot measures 66 and 67 — and a recent poll suggests that thanks to the undecided, the election’s outcome is up in the air.
Portland Tribune pollster Tim Hibbitts’ latest number crunching on Saturday showed that 50 percent of Oregonians were in favor of Measure 66, while only 44 percent were opposed.
Measure 67 was a much closer call, with an estimated 48 percent in favor and 45 percent opposed. In reality, the race could be even tighter than these numbers suggest, as Hibbitts’ margin of error was 4.4 percent.
These numbers show a marked downturn in support and uptick in opposition for both measures. A Hibbitts poll from last week suggested that 52 percent were in support of Measure 66 while 39 percent were opposed, and on Measure 67, 50 percent were in favor while 40 percent were opposed.
Pat McCormick, communications coordinator for Oregonians Against Job-Killing Taxes, an group opposed to the measures, said those who were still undecided — an estimated 6 percent, according to Hibbitts’ poll — were crucial in swinging the vote decidedly in one direction or another. Poll trends suggest the “no” contingent is more likely to receive the bulk of undecided citizens’ votes because Oregonians have historically been wary of voting for statewide tax measures.
“Democrats have been more heavily focused on the ‘yes’ side, and Republicans lean towards the ‘no’,” McCormick said. “But it’s the independents who have held sway, and they’re concerned about these taxes.”
Elana Guiney, communications director for Yes on 66 and 67, said there’s nothing for them to be concerned about. Though tax measures in the past have rightly received criticism and have been voted down, she said, these two measures are the first in a long time that don’t affect the middle class.
“This is the first time in decades that tax measures are not focused on the middle class,” Guiney said. “We have one of the highest tax rates for the middle class; voters at the lower end of that bracket are taxed higher than voters who make that much money anywhere else in the country.”
However, Guiney said these measures are different. Measure 66 would only raise taxes on households that make $250,000 or more annually, or for individuals who make $125,000 or more. And if Measure 67 passed, 97 percent of businesses wouldn’t be affected or would only pay $140 more annually than they do now.
“The fact is that small business owners are going to be affected by a $140 increase” from $10 now to $150 post-67, Guiney said. “This is not going to put them out of business.”
But McCormick said the “yes” campaign is misleading voters.
“They’ve been trying to portray all along that very few people are affected and the changes would be really tiny,” McCormick said. “If it was truly very tiny, it wouldn’t do anything.”
McCormick said Measure 67 calls for a more than a 40 percent increase on business taxes and is “heavily concentrated on businesses that have no profit.”
“Why you’d pass this when you’ve already lost so many private sector jobs is hard to understand,” McCormick said. “Two-thirds of the people affected by this measure are small business owners — the very people we need to rely on to grow the jobs to get us out of this recession. If it affects the person who signs my paycheck, it’s as bad as if it affects me directly.”
University junior Daniel Ronan, who supports the measures, said the “no” campaign is mistaken if it thinks the tax increase would drive small business owners out of the state and worsen the economy.
“They’re not going to leave over what essentially equates to a drop in the bucket,”
Ronan said.
As of Saturday morning, 91,769 Lane County citizens have mailed in their ballots. The last day to drop off ballots is Tuesday.
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