Oregon’s Week 5 win over Penn State put head coach Dan Lanning’s decision-making on fourth downs under a microscope. “We were really clear before the game, regardless of the result, all of our goals are in front of us, we’re coming here to win the game, (and) we’re coming here to be aggressive,” Lanning said after the game.

ESPN’s NFL Game Management Cheat Sheet, a tool that skews more aggressive than most coaches, can measure the true aggressiveness of Lanning’s decisions. The cheat sheet accounts for yards to gain and distance from the end zone to simplify ESPN’s full fourth-down model and recommend fourth-down decisions.

11:14 First Quarter — 4th-and-1 55 yards from the end zone

Cheat Sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Went for it

Lanning was clear about this decision post-game, “We had a false start on the first fourth down, otherwise we would have converted that one — we had a great play call”.

Indeed, the pitch to Jordon Davison gained more than enough on the field, but it was erased by tight end Jamari Johnson’s false start.

0-0, 10:55 First Quarter — 4th-and-5 59 yards from the end zone

Cheat sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Punt

This is the furthest yard marker from which the cheat sheet recommends going for it on 4th-and-5. Given the situation that neither the cheat sheet nor the model can account for — revealing a play call on the previous play— it is fair that Lanning’s aggressiveness stopped short of this conversion attempt.

0-0, 7:32 First Quarter — 4th-and-1 59 yards from the end zone

Cheat sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Went for it

The cheat sheet takes 4th-and-1 attempts a step further than most coaches would, recommending going for it in a typical situation anywhere on the field. Understanding that Lanning came into this game with a particularly aggressive mindset, it is not surprising that he was unfazed by the risk of a turnover in excellent field position that would have dissuaded some coaches. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq motioned across the line and helped the right side open up a massive gap for Dante Moore to convert.

0-0, 3:30 First Quarter — 4th-and-3 38 yards from the end zone

Cheat Sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Went for it

This one was a no-brainer for both Lanning and the cheat sheet. Outside of field goal range and too far downfield to punt, he drew up a shotgun pass for Moore. Before the play could develop, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton stutter-stepped and blew by right guard Alex Harkey, forcing Moore out of the pocket. He spun past one defender at the line of scrimmage, but cornerback A.J. Harris and linebacker Amare Campble combined to stop him a yard short. The turnover on downs led to Penn State’s opening field goal, but Lanning still made the correct decision. 

0-3, 11:33 Second Quarter — 4th-and-2 43 yards from the end zone

Cheat Sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Went for it

Like 4th-and-1, the cheat sheet is more aggressive than most coaches on 4th-and-2, but the combination of Lanning’s aggressive game plan, his increasing comfort with going for it as he got more looks at Penn State’s defense, and Oregon’s proximity to game-tying field goal range, this was fairly straightforward.

Moore timed the pass over the middle to wide receiver Malik Benson perfectly, and as soon as Benson turned to face him, the ball was in his hands for a gain of seven.

0-3, 9:40 Second Quarter — 4th-and-3 29 yards from the end zone

Cheat Sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Attempted field goal

Although the cheat sheet disagrees with Lanning, it would have recommended a field goal on 4th-and-4 from the same yardage, so this was a tight margin. Accounting for the score, like the full model would have done, the decision to tie the game is understandable.

The 47-yard attempt was one yard short of Atticus Sappington’s career long, but from the right hash marks, he pulled it wide left.

0-3, 5:52 Second Quarter — 4th-and-1 50 yards from the end zone

Cheat Sheet: Go for it

Lanning: Went for it

The cheat sheet can’t account for Mo Bamba echoing through Beaver Stadium as the Ducks lined up on 4th-and-1, but Lanning’s openness to playing the song he admitted to disliking at practices during the week prepared the team for the moment.

Lanning’s play action call worked to perfection, stranding six secondary defenders who broke toward the line in anticipation of a run, and leaving Dakorien Moore open for a 20-yard gain.

0-3, 3:47 Second Quarter — 4th-and-4 24 yards from the end zone

Cheat Sheet: Field goal

Lanning:  Field goal

4th-and-4 is the first yardage where the cheat sheet recommends a field goal attempt 24 yards out. Lanning’s decision to resist a conversion attempt that the model would have deemed overly aggressive showed an impressive control of his game plan. If this was Lanning at his most aggressive, he is still willing to make conservative decisions when they’re in his best interest

Sappington got redemption and tied the game from 42 yards out.

Second Half

The cheat sheet doesn’t apply to the two fourth downs that Lanning faced in the fourth quarter due to the amount of converging factors that the model considers. With 7:07 remaining, he made his easiest decision, punting on 4th-and-14 from Oregon’s 32-yard line, but five minutes earlier, he made possibly his hardest decision of the game.

On 4th-and-1 from Penn State’s eight-yard line, Lanning opted to keep his offense on the field and press for a 17-3 lead rather than 13-3. Tight ends Zach Grace and Kenyon Sadiq lined up on the right side of the line, with Grace motioning to the left and Sadiq following him once the ball was snapped. Both made key blocks in the backfield, and Davison gained all eight yards for the two-touchdown lead.

The cheat sheet is generally more aggressive than coaches as well.