As the final stretch of Oregon’s basketball season approaches, the Ducks find themselves in a dogfight.
If the team has any hopes of making the NCAA Tournament in mid-March, the Ducks will have to successfully navigate their way through the final five conference games and Pac-12 tournament. Even if Oregon can find a way to finish the season strong, it might need a little luck to be one of the 68 teams chosen for the NCAA Tournament.
Currently, the Ducks are listed as the No. 11 seed in the West bracket by CBS Bracketology, while ESPN has them listed as one of the “first four teams out.”
Here are five things that the Ducks need accomplished if they plan on dancing.
1) Defeat Utah and Stanford: As of now, Oregon is just 2-5 against a top-50 RPI team, with the wins coming against Illinois (No. 47) and UCLA (No. 41). The win against the Bruins earlier in Pac-12 play was negated this past weekend in the rematch. Oregon is only guaranteed two more games against top-50 RPI teams and it is against No. 9 Utah and at No. 42 Stanford. Wins against both teams would give the Ducks a 4-5 record against the top-50, thus improving their resume and thrusting them into the top-50.
2) No bad losses: The Ducks face California and Colorado, two teams who are currently ranked outside of the top-100 in RPI. A loss to either one of those teams greatly diminishes Oregon’s chances of making the tournament because it will drop the Ducks’ RPI below those of other bubble teams. Oregon needs to take care of business against both teams, including a win over rival Oregon State in the regular season finale.
3) Make the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament: The most obvious answer would be to win the conference tournament and get the conference’s automatic bid. But, defeating Arizona seems very unlikely at this point. Making the semifinals will give the Ducks two more wins, with one potentially coming set against UCLA or Stanford, earning another top-50 win. An early exit in the conference tournament would diminish Oregon’s chances of dancing.
4) Joe Young needs to stay hot: When it comes to bubble teams and selecting them, having a star player leading your squad can only improve your chances. Young is averaging 21 points per game over his last eight games, six of which have been Oregon victories. He has the ability to take over games, thus making him an exciting player to watch and one the selection committee would want in the tournament.
5) Get lucky: Illinois, St. John’s, UCLA and Old Dominion are the final four teams listed to make the tournament. Losses from those teams would help propel Oregon into the tournament.
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka