Let’s talk more about expansion — megaconferences, more specifically.
The jumping-off point will be a tiebreaker based around points scored in single-game wins that arose in the Big Ten. That’s the genesis point, and I’m going to explain it, but the questions around it are much deeper and matter beyond this year.
The tiebreaker is another byproduct of conference expansion — one of the most significant pieces of innovation in modern college football. The megaconferences, even if they’re not truly “super leagues,” are creating some serious questions about their legitimacy that we thought would be handled with the expansion of the College Football Playoff.
Some teams in power conferences won’t play a ranked team, while others could miss out on championships on the points scored tiebreaker. It may all end up on the line when playoff berths come to bear. Were divisions perfect? No. But is this?
Heading into Week 10 of the season, Oregon was undefeated with one-score wins over then-ranked No. 2 Ohio State and then-unranked Boise State in addition to a blowout of then-ranked No. 20 Illinois. But because of the tiebreaker system in the 18-team Big Ten, Oregon could’ve missed out on a berth in the conference championship game if Indiana (who had no games against teams with a single AP poll vote as of Week 10) and Penn State won out and beat Ohio State by more than the one point the Ducks did.
In that scenario an undefeated Ducks squad likely would’ve headed into the playoff with the No. 5 seed, but missed out on the opportunity to clinch a bye and instead play the No. 12 seed in Eugene.
There’s potential benefits in that situation, too — skipping a week of games and playing a lower seed in the first round instead — but the issue is a stronger undefeated team once again missing out on the top-4 slots.
Is the answer in adding more slots for power conferences? There’s been rumors around the idea of adding protection for Big Ten and SEC schools, but that still doesn’t solve the actual issue, and it kills the idea of getting in on merit.
There’s not enough time nor the desire from teams trying to preserve players for the best solution: a four-team in-conference mini tournament at the end of the year.
We’re left with this:
In this perfect storm, an unexpectedly good team (Indiana) and two relative powerhouses (Oregon and Penn State) could’ve all finished undefeated. That’s unheard of in a power conference — but possible in one with 18 teams.
In that scenario, whether in this year or another, you’ve got to review the tiebreaker rules, which the conference revised in August 2024: These teams cannot and should not be judged on one game, much less a win.
There can be a ranked-wins tiebreaker, or a quality-of-opponent tiebreaker that emphasizes scheduling strong opponents and rewards a gauntlet season overcome rather than a cakewalk annihilated. What should not happen is a single score in a vacuum deciding a playoff berth.
As fans continue to discover how this new system works, it’ll likely be a scenario that they have to encounter again.
It didn’t count this time, but what it will do is emphasize running up the score over resting starters, punching the ball in instead of kneeling it out, and risking it all in order to avoid punishment at season’s end.
Stay tuned.
