One thing about NCAA basketball, in particular, that separates it from most other collegiate or professional sports, is there’s a sliver of hope until there really aren’t any games left. There’s no tanking or jostling for a higher draft pick, or qualifying for a bowl game in mid-December with little relevance. There’s true — though misplaced at times — optimism that competing for a national championship is a plausible reality.
This is thanks to the conference tournaments — an event that, if won, results in an NCAA Tournament bid, regardless of how the champion’s regular season unfolded.
Oregon (18-13, 12-8) fits this phenomena to a tee.
“We look at this as a new opportunity,” head coach Dana Altman said. “We know it’s a very difficult road.”
Despite the early season injury bug, the game-to-game disappearing acts and the poor performances in must-have spots, Oregon has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament simply because the Pac-12 Tournament exists.
For the No. 4-seeded Ducks, that quest starts on Thursday at 2:30 p.m, in Las Vegas, when they take on the winner of No. 5 Washington State vs. No. 12 UC Berkeley.
“It has not been one of those seasons that’s been smooth,” head coach Dana Altman said after their 73-68 win over Stanford on Saturday. “We got some guys back, a couple more go down. Here we are in March and we don’t have a rotation.”
Being the No. 4 seed in the Pac-12 and receiving a first-round bye might seem like a watermark for a successful regular season. For the Ducks, it’s a small consolation prize. It means a team with essentially no chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament needs to win three games instead of four to earn an automatic bid.
About a month ago, they had aspirations of earning the No. 2 seed in the conference, so how did we get here? And is there a chance they satisfy that teasing optimism that the Pac-12 Tournament presents?
To answer these questions, it’s vital to return to before the Ducks had even played a regular season basketball game. On Nov. 1, 2022, they held a forum for the fans to ask questions of Altman and his players. It was an oddly structured event kicked off by Altman light-heartedly roasting over half his roster for their inability to stay healthy.
Little did anyone know, his jokes had some truth to them.
Will Richardson, Quincy Guerrier and Rivaldo Soares are the only three players to have appeared in each of the Ducks’ 31 games this season.
That lack of continuity is present in Altman’s constant search for a rotation and starting lineup this season.
“There’s no starting lineup etched in stone,” he said on Jan. 24.
A month and a half later, it seems they’ve finally figured out that much as they’ve had the same starters seven games in a row.
A byproduct of the injuries, but an issue in and of itself has been the inability to show up on a night-to-night basis.
“Obviously, I’m disappointed with the inconsistencies we’ve shown,” Altman said. “There’s no excuse for it now. Earlier in the year, I could have given them an excuse for it. Now there’s none and we’re still inconsistent.”
Recently, that’s been apparent in the performances of Richardson, a fifth-year senior and the only Duck without the option to return next year. He’s seemingly not been able to make the most of that final opportunity.
Just three weeks ago, the Ducks sat at 15-10 entering a six-game spell consisting of five games against teams with losing conference records. Rather than taking care of business, they split the six games. It was a stretch where Richardson battled through injury but averaged 6.2 points per game and shot 35.9% from the field.
In Oregon’s game against Washington, the Ducks held a slight lead throughout but never took control, and a 27-point performance from the Huskies’ Keyon Menifield pushed the game into overtime where the Huskies prevailed. Two nights later, a similar phenomenon occurred as Washington State outlasted Oregon 68-65.
These were two games in which the Ducks were favored and needed to win, but fell short.
“In the Washington game, we had a five-point lead and we had a few bad possessions there,” Altman said. “Washington State, we got ourselves back in it, then gave up two offensive rebounds. So, we obviously showed them the film. It’s a learning experience.”
He added: “I hope that stuff can help them learn how important possessions are late in games.”
While the Ducks didn’t expect to be in close games with the Huskies and Cougars, it helped them find a win in another surprise nail-biter with the Oregon State Beavers in the following game.
Tied at 67 with control of the final possession, their offense worked through its first two options — a drive from Richardson and a look to Dante on the roll — when neither was there they stayed calm and found Soares, who knocked down a pull-up jumper for the win.
In the span of two weeks, Oregon learned from its shortcomings and applied it to a victory. It’s a blessing in disguise for a team that was desperate to build chemistry. Now they have a real sample size of where the ball should go with the game on the line.
To go on a run and win the Pac-12 Tournament, the Ducks will have to continue to use that experience of being in close games.
