Until Tuesday night, I actually thought Oregon State had the upper hand heading into Saturday’s monumental Civil War.
It all started back in early October, when the Beavers cracked the Associated Press Top-25 poll. That’s when I started paying close attention to Oregon State.
Does a team that posts one impressive victory deserve to be ranked? Especially if that team almost lost to a non-Division I-A opponent?
Now, after watching it sweep through the Pacific-10 Conference, I know the answer: yes.
Hats off to the Beavers. They beat the odds this season. Except for a loss at Husky Stadium, one of the toughest places to play anywhere, Oregon State was flawless in Pac-10 play. It won at home; it won on the road. And when it won, it left little doubt that it deserved to win.
The way in which the Beavers won games this season, capped by last Saturday’s 33-9 win against Arizona, is what kept creeping into my number-crunching mind as I struggled to form my own Civil War prediction.
On one hand, people talk about the Ducks’ amazing ability to pull out close wins, even if they arguably don’t deserve to win.
Evidence: Nearing the end of regulation in Tempe, Ariz., Sun Devils tailback Mike Williams only needed to fall down after running more than was necessary for the first down with about one minute left in regulation.
Fumble. Ducks recover. Ducks score. From that point, the outcome was inevitable. The Ducks won, 56-55.
In games like that, Oregon always seems to win. I’ve heard it so many times since last season — that they are “a team of destiny” — and when it comes to winning close games, maybe they are. They beat Arizona, Arizona State and Washington State by a combined eight points. Really, they must have something close to destiny on their side — there’s just no other illogical explanation.
Oregon State’s three-point loss to Washington was its only loss, hardly enough to tell if it’s got destiny on its side.
But so far, the Beavers haven’t needed destiny’s help.
Oregon State didn’t play Arizona State, but against Washington State and Arizona, which the Ducks beat by a combined seven points, the Beavers won by 53 points.
So then, you might ask yourself, how can Oregon pull out a close win if the game isn’t close to begin with?
Flashback to last Saturday’s Oregon State game against Arizona. Not long after that game started, it was already finished. In the Ducks’ case, it wasn’t done until the final play of the game.
Which brings me to the No. 1 reason why I wouldn’t predict an Oregon win as of Tuesday morning: The Ducks have yet to piece together a solid, all-around game.
It seems that when something isn’t working, something else turns on. When the defense doesn’t win it, the offense does. Or each aspect may take turns throughout the game, as was the case against UCLA and Washington. Even on offense, when the passing game isn’t there, the running game usually is and vice-versa.
But the Ducks haven’t had a game like the Beavers had last Saturday, when the entire team clicked on all cylinders.
So how does Oregon have a chance to win?
Well, I’ll start with that Arizona game. Yes, the Beavers were impressive, but the Wildcats made it easy for them.
It’s true that the Ducks only beat the Wildcats by four points. But when that game took place, Oregon and Arizona were tied for the Pac-10 lead. It was a critical game that determined who controlled the Rose Bowl race, and fittingly, both teams stepped up to the challenge.
When Oregon State played the Wildcats, its opponent was playing for what — a trip to the Aloha Bowl at best? Again, the Wildcats played up to the game’s value.
And not to discredit the Beavers, but they’re the new kids on the top-10 block. The Ducks haven’t been there long themselves, but they had enough national attention earlier in the season that they weren’t going to surprise anyone. Oregon had a bulls-eye painted on it in every one of its Pac-10 games.
All the Pac-10 knew about Oregon State was that it struggled through a cream-puff preseason, then beat up on conference cupcakes like Washington State and Stanford.
The Beavers deserved respect, but I don’t think they really got it until they destroyed Arizona. But even then, is it really that surprising that they won so handily?
However, that’s not the main reason why I now think the Ducks will win Saturday.
It came to me when I received a phone call from my father as I sat in the newsroom at about 8 p.m. Tuesday. We talked about the Ducks, about Oregon State, about the magnitude of this Civil War and about what winning would mean for each team’s program.
And there it is.
Even if it wins, chances are that Oregon State isn’t going to the Rose Bowl. The Huskies will beat Washington State. If the Beavers win the Civil War, they’ll go to the Holiday Bowl, unless Oregon State or Washington goes to the Fiesta Bowl, which is a possibility, but it’s only speculation at this point.
The Ducks, meanwhile, tasted a share of the Pac-10 title when they beat California. They want the whole thing, and to go to the Rose Bowl, the granddaddy of them all.
And although they don’t say it, they want to show the nation where they could’ve, should’ve gone had they beaten Wisconsin.
Destiny is a powerful force. When an opponent scores 55 points, destiny can find that 56th for the win.
Is there such a thing as a team of destiny?
If there is, the Ducks are, and so I have to predict an Oregon win.
I’ve seen it happen too many times to think the Civil War will be any different. Just when you think the Ducks will lose, they won’t. Some things are just meant to be.