New season, new team and new conference.
That’s the storyline for Oregon football right now, and it likely will be for quite some time. But as the Ducks spend spring football season preparing for a rigorous Big Ten slate, which of their opponents are the most formidable? I’ve constructed a hierarchy list with the four different tiers I see existing in the Big Ten in 2024.
The Juggernauts: Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Penn State
This isn’t that bold of a claim, but I’ll state it anyway: the 2024 Big Ten Champion will be one of these four teams. Each of these squads is coming off a dominant, 10-plus-win season in 2023, and each has left its mark on the class of 2024 recruiting class. According to 247Sports, Oregon has the No. 3 2024 recruiting class, Ohio State is No. 5, Penn State ranks No. 15 and Michigan is No. 16.
Michigan, obviously, is coming off a 15-0 season that saw the Wolverines with the National Championship. While they’ve lost some major offensive pieces and their head coach, it would be foolish to think Michigan will be “down” next year. Ohio State and Oregon look like the most put-together teams in the conference, and their meeting at Autzen Stadium will be one of the biggest games in college football next season. It would also be foolish to sleep on the Nittany Lions in any given season. It’s fortunate they aren’t on the Ducks’ slate in 2024.
The Ducks look to be high in the conference’s standings, but should be aware of the realities that recent teams changing conferences have faced. The Big Ten is going to be a whole different beast. It may be a tameable one, but Oregon will have to be elite to survive its inaugural year.
The Risers: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota
I’d be careful overlooking any of these four squads. Wisconsin will be in its second season under Luke Fickell and landed transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Frankly, this is the road game that scares me most for Oregon next season. The Ducks will have to have it, and the Badgers will be a powerful team. Nebraska seems to finally be on the rise and has found its future in quarterback Dylan Raiola — the top-ranked quarterback in his class.
Iowa’s offense was a joke last season, so there’s really only one way for it to go. The defense will still be stifling. Minnesota had a down year last season, but head coach P.J. Fleck isn’t known for having consecutive losing seasons. The Golden Gophers played a lot of high-caliber teams tough last season.
The Fall Offs: Washington, Rutgers, Maryland, USC and Northwestern
Aside from USC, whose 2023 was comically underwhelming, these teams are all coming off pretty decent seasons. However, I see all of them taking a major step back in 2024. Washington is amidst a mass exodus of NFL draftees and NCAA transfers (heartbreaking, I know). The Huskies might be bowl-eligible in 2024 even after landing transfer quarterback Will Rogers. Caleb Williams is leaving USC and the Trojans’ championship window appears to have slammed shut. These two former Pac-12 squads are in for rude awakenings in their first seasons in the Big Ten.
Rutgers and Maryland had pretty decent seasons in 2024. However, Taulia Tagovailoa will be leaving the Terrapins and Rutgers has a brutal upcoming schedule. It’s hard for me to imagine either of these teams keeping stride with their impressive 2023 campaigns.
Northwestern may have been the biggest surprise of 2023. The Wildcats were supposed to be terrible and then they fired their coach amidst a scandal. Then, remarkably, they won eight games! It was a heartwarming season and storyline, but it’s not one that will repeat itself as the Big Ten expands.
The Bad and Ugly: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana and UCLA
These teams either suck, sucked last year or will suck this year. UCLA finds itself on the wrong side of the portal. Purdue, Illinois and Indiana seem to be stuck in football purgatory, refusing to take substantial steps toward complacency. Michigan State just landed former OSU head coach Jonathan Smith. I think time will show that it was a good signing for the Spartans, but I don’t see them taking any major steps in 2024.
