Dana Altman is not a bad basketball coach.
In sixteen years as head coach of Creighton, he won more than 300 games with players generally thought to have little chance of playing in the pros — my apologies to Kyle Korver. Since he’s sat on the sidelines at Oregon, his teams have progressively gotten better, and if one measly play had gone the Ducks way in last year’s Pac-12 tourney loss to Colorado, Oregon would have had a resumé worthy of the Big Dance. Altman’s not John Calipari (thank God), but he’s done a lot with a little and earned remarkable cachet quickly.
But if Altman doesn’t get the Ducks to the NCAA Tournament in this, his third, year as head coach, fair or unfair, it will be a massive disappointment.
After looking at the team’s schedule — released Tuesday — it won’t be a cake walk. After warm-up jaunts against Concordia and Southwestern Oklahoma State (that’s a real school; I looked it up), Oregon faces a tough stretch in the Global Sports Classic. Depending on how things shake out, the Ducks could play Vanderbilt, UNLV, Iowa State or Cincinnati. All but UNLV posted wins in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Pac-12 will be much better than the dismal mess of 2011, and teams like Arizona and UCLA will be dangerously good this year. So, a run into March won’t be easy.
But Altman’s immediate success and the shiny new building and Oregon fans’ spoils on the gridiron have raised expectations to one point: It’s bracket or bust.
This isn’t to say if Altman fails he’ll get run out of town. He’s not even halfway into a seven-year deal, and he once reneged on a fat contract with Arkansas to stay at Creighton, so he’s a loyal guy.
But another tourney letdown will at least force supporters to take another look at his spotty recruiting record. Altman’s selfless system doesn’t put all the credit (or blame) of a game on one player, which is one reason Korver and other past players have professed support for him. But team ball is unattractive to AAU studs looking for a one-and-done ticket to the NBA. Partially because of this and because Oregon isn’t exactly a known basketball powerhouse, Altman won’t ever nab a Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis recruit.
Yet he’s not exactly doing a great job of retaining the recruits he is getting. Five-star recruit Jabari Brown left practically before he got here, and fellow freshman Bruce Barron followed him out the door. Teondre Williams and Malcolm Armstead had already left, but that’s more understandable because of former coach Ernie Kent’s involvement in their initial recruitment.
Then, in June, Brett Kingma bolted for Washington State. And he must have felt strongly to move closer to his Washington home because he may fall under a Pac-12 rule forcing intra-conference transfers to sit out a season. What made Kingma leave? Probably Dominic Artis, a top-50 recruit and the gem of Altman’s most recent recruiting class. But what happens if Artis goes the route of Brown and all of the others? Is it really that out of the question?
If the Ducks are cruising along in January en route to another 20-win season, this is all going to look foolish. But say a few of those two-game road trips don’t go the Ducks way, and Altman is looking at another squad scrapping its way into the second round of the NIT. He’ll have a lot of questions to answer, and Duck fans won’t be charitable.
It’s win now or else.