As the NBA season kicks off, Blazers fans are faced with a perplexing season. For the past five seasons, management has promised a season worthy of high expectations, but this year is different.
After a catastrophic campaign in the 2011-12 season, the front office shed contracts and looked to make a splash in the draft. Their first pick, Damian Lillard, looks great so far and should be productive. If their second pick, work-in-progress center Meyers Leonard, turns out to be a productive player this could be their best draft since the 2006 draft when they signed all-stars Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. While those expectations are probably unrealistic for Leonard, being a productive player that could one day start would leave GM Neil Olshey satisfied. The Emerald asked Jason Quick, Blazers beat writer for The Oregonian, his opinion on the season and the future.
Emerald: What are realistic expectations for the season?
Quick: I expect it to be a trying season in terms of wins and losses. I’m envisioning something like a 32-50 season. But this season will be more about development than wins and losses. And not just the development of the rookies like Damian Lillard and Meyers Leonard, but also whether Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews can elevate their games from average NBA starters to better-than-average starters, or even perhaps elite players. Also, this team has a bunch of fringe players — the Luke Babbitt’s, Nolan Smith’s, Sasha Pavlovic’s — and if one of them emerges and becomes relevant, they could greatly bolster the chips in front of Olshey when he sits down to make a deal in February.
What are your early feelings about new head coach Terry Stotts and Olshey?
I have to admit, I wasn’t crazy about either hire when they went down, but I have been very, very impressed with both of them since they have taken over. Olshey has a plan, a vision, and he has been very disciplined in adhering to it, meaning he has not been seduced by the $7 million contracts who can make a difference this season but don’t fit into the team’s long-term plan — a Chris Kaman for example. He was available this summer and could have been attained, making the Blazers a better team this season, but it would have come at the cost of Leonard’s development. Olshey is also very player oriented. He has made no bones to the business side of the organization that the players are the priority. That means public appearances, marketing meetings — all that crap that bogged down players before — are to be done judiciously and with the player’s best interest at heart. He’s no-nonsense, high energ, and makes it known he’s the boss. Not many in the media like him, but I love him. They needed a strong leader.
Stotts has really surprised me. I thought he was such a vanilla hire. But when you listen to him talk basketball, you realize he has a very bright mind. The players love playing for him. His style is to transfer the power to the court, meaning trust the players to do the right thing rather than directing with a heavy and controlling fist. He wants the players to move the ball, trust their shot and play together. It has resulted in a much quicker, more fluid and more enjoyable style of basketball than we had come to watch under Nate McMillan. This entertaining style will mask a lot of the talent deficiencies on this roster, which will make a 50-loss season more bearable.
Aside from Lillard, how many minutes will the rookies get?
Probably a little too early to tell. Lillard figures to play a ton. Stotts casually mentioned 37 minutes a game the other day. Leonard will be the first center off the bench, and depending on his foul trouble, I would venture to say he averages around 20-to-25 minutes a game early in the season, with an upward trend as spring rolls around. Joel Freeland figures to be the next in line for minutes, but it seems like they had hoped he was farther along than he is. Victor Claver could also contend for minutes at small forward, but he is third string.
How bad is the defense for the Blazers?
This will likely be the team’s greatest weakness, and not just because of Hickson, who is not only undersized for a center but is a poor defender to start with. Nobody on this team is an above-average defender, no matter what you hear about Batum or Matthews. Any player with physicality bullies Batum, and Matthews has had trouble keeping guards in front of him. He’s probably best suited to guard small forwards. And for how polished Lillard is on offense, he is extremely vulnerable on defense. In fact, one NBA coach told me “he plays no defense.”
What is the likelihood of Aldridge and Matthews being traded?
 I haven’t heard any of those rumors. Olshey recently assured Aldridge that he won’t be traded, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen if the right deal comes along. I think it shows that the Blazers aren’t exactly shopping their centerpiece. They like Aldridge and feel like he can help attract a big-time free agent. Matthews, on the other hand, is probably the most likely rotation player to be traded. I say that because he is good enough to have value around the league, his salary (about $6 million) is manageable, and it’s a position where the Blazers would like to upgrade. I think in the grand vision of the Blazers, they will know they are nearing where they want to be when Matthews is a 6th man, not a starter.
What is the best course to return to relevance?
 I like the course Olshey is taking: develop a young core, accumulate assets, and spend free agent money only on players who fit the long-term course of the franchise. You won’t see the Kaman-type signings, or the Jamal Crawford-type pickups … those guys are short-term players who eat up your cap space.
Is Damian Lillard a franchise player?
Yes. It’s still probably too early to definitively say that, but from everything I have seen, and heard, he is the real deal. Personally, he is a great kid. Outstanding. On the court, his court vision is off the charts, and his jumper is as smooth as it comes. I’m actually surprised when he misses because I’ve seen him make jumpers on such a consistent basis in practice. His defense needs to get better, and point guard is a tough position to be a rookie starter, but I think they have finally found their franchise point guard.