This Saturday, the USC Trojans (7-3, 5-2 Pac-12) travel to Autzen Stadium for the final time as a member of the Pac-12 in a battle that leans on the No. 6 Oregon Ducks’ (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) playoff hopes. In the midst of a colossal collapse, the Trojans remain in contention for a spot in the final Pac-12 Championship, while the Ducks have their eyes on a rematch with Washington and the College Football Playoff.
Last Saturday, the Ducks overcame early turnover issues and penalty trouble to batter the California Golden Bears 63-19, while USC came out short at home against Pac-12 leader Washington in a 52-42 loss that left the Trojans scrambling ahead of their visit to Autzen Stadium.
College football is fickle. Despite just two conference losses, preseason Heisman favorite Caleb Williams and the Trojans are painted as a team in crisis. Oregon, with a similar Pac-12 record, is surging in its quest for a bowl game. Two high-powered offenses are the engines of championship-caliber teams, but it’s the defenses that separate them.
Despite putting up 45.5 points per game on average, USC struggles to keep teams off the scoreboard. It allows an average of 34.5 points, including back-to-back games featuring 41-point efforts by Colorado and Arizona. The Trojans surge ahead, only to allow teams back into games — they led 34-14 against the Buffs at halftime only to win by a single touchdown after being shut out in the fourth quarter. They struggle to put teams away — allowing a touchdown in the final minute against Cal, only to be saved by a failed two-point attempt. Four times this season, they’ve allowed north of 40 points. This is a team that lacks mentality.
And yet, the team cannot be ignored. Great players cannot carry a season but they can produce moments of magic that defy reality, and it’s impossible to deny that Williams is one of those players. In a game that may threaten to turn into a shootout, Oregon’s greatest strength will be its ability to keep Williams and USC without the ball. It’s a combination of offensive decision making that doomed the Ducks in their loss against Washington and stout defensive moments.
The difference between the two teams is stark. Oregon held the Golden Bears, who dropped from 49 points on USC on Oct. 28 to just 19 points last Saturday. Oregon defensive linemen Brandon Dorlus, Evan Williams and Jordan Burch total 10.5 sacks between them: a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Hurried quarterbacks make rash decisions, and the Oregon secondary has nine interceptions this season. Williams’ strength comes from his ability to pick defenses apart with passes, and if the Ducks can hurry the D.C. native, they’ll roll the Trojans off the field and out of Pac-12 contention.
In his final year as a Duck, Bo Nix remains in the race for the Heisman. After a standout six-touchdown performance against Cal where he totaled 386 yards passing, he’ll look to prove his point as Oregon rushes into the stretch where his case can be cemented. Much of his time, however, is provided by what Oregon shows on the ground.
Despite losing Noah Whittington to injury just four games into the season, the Ducks’ run game has been elite. Bucky Irving has emerged as one of the nation’s best backs, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and powering his way to nine touchdowns, matched by Jordan James (8.0 yards per game/nine TD). The double punch that Oregon’s run game packs leaves teams scrambling to match the versatility that the Ducks’ offense offers. When Nix drops back, teams have to commit, leaving checkdowns free or an electric receiver wide open. To make matters worse for the Trojans, USC allows 172.1 rushing yards per game against FBS schools, ranking No. 92 amongst those teams. Watch for Irving and James to blow the game open with their work on the ground.
This game is riddled with implication — the winner jumps ahead in the Pac-12 rankings and makes a statement to the rankings committees. The loser will find itself scrambling ahead of two difficult final weeks. This game defines who is resigned to the role of spoiler, and who will book a ticket to Las Vegas. It’s all on the line, two weeks before the final game. Both teams will put all the cards on the table — but only one will survive to gamble in Sin City.
